危险品集装箱堆场人因失误概率量化方法研究

由于人因失误是引发危险品集装箱堆场事故的主要原因,特别以成功似然指数法为框架研究了危险品集装箱堆场人因失误概率的量化方法。考虑了影响因子的主观特性,重点结合认知可靠性与失误分析方法对成功似然指数法进行修正,确定了培养与组织管理、同时出现的目标数量等6项行为形成因子。通过建立熵权法、模糊集合理论与专家判断的融合实现人因失误概率的计算。最后,用算例验证了方法的有效性,结果表明,本方法不但可将测算精度控制在有效区间(0,0.059 5),而且相较其他方法将危险系数降低了6.97%。针对危险品集装箱堆场管理这类高危行业,较高的人因失误率有利于风险辨识和风险预防。

Assessment of human error intervention probability in the hazardous container replacement yards

This paper is intended to make an analysis of the comparative importance in the human error probability in treating the hazardous containers in the hazard-goods container-placed yards by using the quantitative method based on the Success Likelihood Index Method. As is known,it is necessary to choose the Performance Shaping Factors in accordance with the expert assessment when the focus of the method is placed on the said Successful Likelihood Index Method so as to quantify the relevant indicators, on the condition that the human error is believed to account for the said accidents. For in such a situation,the key problem is to reduce the subjective inclination influence of the expertise mixed with the other related methods. The reason can be said that,when choosing the Performance Shaping Factors,the primary collection has to be done with the Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method,once the questionnaires were distributed to the experts and practitioners. And,eventually,the six Performance Shaping Factors have to be finalized on the evaluation of the training and organization management,the category of the hazardous goods,the corresponding circumstances of the container yards, the quantity of the simultaneous objects,the psychological state of the operators,in addition to the equipment condition of the hazardous container yards. As a result of our study,it is of a great more importance to reduce the subjective influence to draw the primary collection of the Performance Shaping Factors,whose value can be worked out based on the combination of the entropy method,the fuzzy set theory and the expert assessment. Whereas it is possible for the entropy method to take into account the interactions among the Performance Shaping Factors,it would be possible to quantify the weight factors more accurately. On the other hand,since the fuzzy set theory can take into account the complicated situations of the hazardous container yards,it can help to quantify the grade of performance-accumulating factors more precisely based on the expert evaluation. Thus,the two constants of the success likelihood index method can be gained through the method of the absolute probability prediction for the end points with an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods applied. Thus,the method we have chosen proves to be capable to guarantee the measurement precision in a feasible set (0, 0. 059 5). What is more,the danger risk coefficient can be reduced to 6. 97％ lower than what is gained with the other similar methods. And,in so doing,it has made safer to deal with the high-risk business,such as business control in the hazardous container yards,and it has been made easier to measure the higher human error probability and recognize and prevent the likely appearing risks,so as to make up for the gaps in the relevant technical areas and to enhance the risk-prevention liabilities in the hazardous container yards.