Brushland fire-management policies: A cross-impact simulation of southern California |
| |
Authors: | Thomas M Bonnicksen |
| |
Institution: | (1) University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53706 Madison, Wisconsin |
| |
Abstract: | A cross-impact simulation computer language, UW-KSIM, is presented as a potentially useful technique for assessing the consequences of resource policies. Cross-impact simulation is used to estimate trends in a set of variables that result from interactions produced from hypothesized relationships among the members of the set. This technique is illustrated with an example that simulates the likely impacts of a 20-year rotation burn policy in southern California's brushland watersheds and that compares the results to a simulated representation of the observed effects of the fire-exclusion policy. Simulated losses under the fire-exclusion policy were up to 300% higher than those produced by the rotation burn policy. Similarly, the simulated average area burned per year was reduced from 5.6% of the study area under the fire-exclusion policy to 2% of the study area under the rotation burn policy. A corresponding reduction in simulated appropriations for fighting wildfires was also demonstrated. |
| |
Keywords: | Cross-impact simulation Fire policy Fuel management Brushland watersheds Computer modeling |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |