山东省经济发展与环境保护关系的计量分析

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系常用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）来描述。典型的EKC一般量倒U形。本文选取1988-2002年的山东省环境与经济数据．建立单位GDP污染排放量横型和人均GDP污染排放量模型,对山东省经济发展与环境保护之间的关系进行了计量与分析。通过单位GDP污染负荷模型分析发现。单位GDP的污染负荷量下降态势。这说明山东省产业结构调整已产生明显成效。通过人均GDP污染排放量模型发现．山东省的EKC不完全符合典型的库兹涅茨曲线特征。呈显着的三次曲线特点。其中,工业废水曲线为“U＋倒U”形．两个转折点的理论计算值分别为3416元和9975元。废气与固废曲线近似于倒U形EKC的左半部分．尚来到达转折点。由此可见．环境质量的改善并非随着收入水平的提高而自动发生。除了收入因素。影响山东省EKC的因素还有国家或地区的环境政策、工业化进程等。

Measurement and Analysis of the Relationship Between Economic Development and Environmental Protection of Shandong Province

The EKC curve is often used to describe the relation between economic growth and environmental degradation,and typically in the inverted U shape With the 1988-2002 economic and environmental data in Shandong Province,models of industrial waste discharge per unit GDP and industrial waste discharge per capita GDP have been established,and the relationship between environment protection and economic development has been analyzed.By industrial waste discharge per unit GDP model,we find that the pollution load per unit GDP displays a downward trend, which indicates the adjustment of industrial structure has yielded significant results.By the model of industrial waste discharge in relation to GDP per capita,the paper finds that the relation of economic development and environmental pollution in Shandong province does not conform to the typical shape of EKC,but conforms to the three-time function,in which,the waste water EKC takes the shape of U plus inverted U,and the simulated calculation values of its two turning points are 3416 yuan and 9975 yuan respectively.The curves of waste gas and solid waste are both taking the shape of the left half part of inverted U,and have not reached their turning points yet.In conclusion,the improvement of environmental quality can't occur automatically,economic income,national or regional environmental policy and industrial process are all the factors that lead to EKC in Shandong Province.