自然灾害综合区划研究的现状与展望

概要分析了当前国内外自然灾害区划研究的现状，对比分析了国内已有的若干自然灾害区划方案，作者认为，当前自然灾害区划的特点是精度要求高，区划指标从单一指标向综合指标发展，区划方法从定性分析向定量分析发展，采用以从下往上为主，从上往下的辅的分区方法，已有的模糊聚类分析方法存在有局限性，应在３Ｓ技术支持下发展新的，基于空间邻域分析的区划方法。

THE STATUS QUO AND PROSPECTOF THE RESEARCH OF NATURAL DISASTERCOMPREHENSIVE REGIONALIZATION

This article analyzes the statusquo of the natural disaster regionalizat ion and comparesseveral existing regionalization schemes in China. The authorconsiders that the fidelity of natural disasterregionalization has to be higher and higher, so itneeds to use comprehensive indices instead of singleindex,to employee quantitative methods instead of qualitative methods with the bottom-to-up direction.Also, the author considers that the existing cluster oraggregation analysis methods used inregionalization have shortcomings and there must have some new neighbor-based analysis methods tobe used in it.