基于系统动力学的高校消防安全管理研究

为识别高校消防安全管理的影响因素,有效预防高校火灾事故,本文结合实际案例和调研情况,建立高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型,仿真分析不同消防安全投入比例对高校消防安全管理水平的提升效果和影响趋势。结果表明:高校消防安全管理系统中采用平均分配的投入方案并不理想,且侧重单一分支的投入方案不能有效提升高校整体消防安全管理水平;与之相对应的,采取分散却有所侧重的投入策略是高校消防安全管理投入的最佳选择,消防管理及检查、设备维保更新和消防宣传教育是高校消防安全管理的重点需求与亟需方向;构建的高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型符合实际,能够识别高校消防安全管理中各要素间的相互作用和影响机制,并能有效预测高校消防安全管理水平的变化趋势。

Research on Fire Safety Management in Colleges and Universities Based on System Dynamics

In order to identify the influencing factors of fire safety management and effectively prevent and control fire safety accidents,a dynamic model of fire safety management system for colleges and universities was established.Combined with actual cases and investigations,a simulation analysis was carried out to analyze the improvement effect and change trend of the fire safety management level of colleges and universities under different proportions of fire safety investment.The research results showed that the solution of taking the average investment in fire safety management system was not ideal,and the solution of paying only attention to an aspect could not effectively enhance the fire safety management level.The investment solution taking scattered but focused investment strategy was the best selection,in which the fire management and inspection,equipment repairment and maintain,and fire publicity and education were the major needs and urgent directions of fire safety management investment of colleges and universities.The established dynamic model of fire safety management system for colleges and universities was practical,could identify the mechanism of interaction and influence among the elements of fire safety management of colleges and universities,and could predict the change trend of fire safety management level of colleges and universities.