Nature and fate of Hudson Bay permafrost |
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Authors: | William A Gough Agnes Leung |
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Institution: | (1) Environmental Science, University of Toronto at Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Scarborough, Ontario, M1C 1A4, Canada, |
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Abstract: | Two aspects of the permafrost of the Hudson Bay region are examined. The first is the climatological conditions that support
permafrost especially along the southwestern shore of Hudson Bay. The second is the fate of the permafrost using recent climate
change scenarios. The continuous permafrost along the shores of southwestern Hudson Bay is examined from a climatological
perspective. Two hypotheses are explored to explain the presence of continuous permafrost in this region in spite of the relatively
"warm" local climate. Possible errors in the calculation of thawing degree days and the asymmetries in frozen and unfrozen
soil thermal conductivities are successively examined. Only the second hypothesis is likely to explain the presence of permafrost
in southwestern Hudson Bay. Sophisticated climate models are used to assess the potential change in permafrost distribution
in the Hudson Bay region. Nine simulations using three different versions of the Canadian Centre of Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCma) general circulation model are used to project permafrost distribution. Two surface temperature thresholds,
–5 and –10 °C, are used to diagnose permafrost grid points. All simulations, including those that include reduction of CO2 emissions, showed at least a 50% reduction of permafrost by 2100 using these temperature thresholds.
Electronic Publication |
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Keywords: | Permafrost Hudson Bay Climate change Climate models Global warming |
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