气候变化下21世纪上海长江口地区降水变化趋势分析

近百年来，以全球变暖为主要特征的气候与环境发生了重大变化，在此条件下，气候变化对自然生态系统的影响越来越大，特别是对水资源的负面影响尤为明显，包括水资源数量、质量及其时空分布，水资源开发利用程度，供用水结构以及产水、供水、用水、耗水、排水之间的关系等。上海长江口地区是我国经济发展核心区，而南水北调东线工程实施后，长江口的流量，以及海水的入侵都会直接影响到上海的发展，因此未来百年该区域的降水量在气候变化影响下的变化趋势对区域发展有着一定的影响作用。利用IPCC 数据分发中心提供的CCCma模式的4种模拟结果，分析了在全球气候变化下，由于人类活动影响、温室气体增加等共同作用时，长江口地区未来50～100年的降水量变化情景。结果表明，降水量总的会呈现上升趋势，并且降水强度的变化也越来越明显。

PRECIPITATION PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THEMOUTH AREA OF THE YANGTZE RIVER IN THE 21ST CENTURY

The climate and environment have changed greatly as a consequence of global warming over the last century.Climate change has brought some adverse effect on natural ecology system,especially on water resources,including quantity,quality,spatial-temporal distribution,water supply and water demand.After the "South to North Water Transfer(E)" project being set up in practice,the self-purification capability will be decreased in the Yangtze River,especially in lower water period,so the wastewater discharge of Shanghai will have an influence on wetland environment in the mouth of the Yangtze River.Using the simulation of four CCCma models provided by DDC of IPCC,the situation of climate change along the mouth area of the Yangtze River in the next 50 to 100 years due to the effects of human activities was analyzed in this paper.It is indicated that the climate change in this area has some effect on precipitation.The precipitation will show,to some degree,an increasing tend,and the increase in annual precipitation intensity is obvious.