Spatial and space-time scan statistics to detect low rate clusters of sex ratio |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Jean-Francois?VielEmail author Nathalie?Floret Frederic?Mauny |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine,Biostatistics and Epidemiology Unit,Besan?on,France |
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Abstract: | Whether general environmental exposures to endocrine disrupting chemicals (including pesticides and dioxin) might induce decreased
sex ratios (male/female ratio at birth) is discussed. To address this issue, the authors looked for a space-time clustering
test which could detect local areas of significantly low risk, assuming a Bernoulli distribution. As a matter of fact, if the endocrine disruptor hypothesis holds true, and if the
sex ratio is a sentinel health event indicative of new reproductive hazards ascribed to environmental factors, then in a given
region, either a cluster of low male/female ratio among newborn babies would be expected in the vicinity of polluting municipal
solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) (supporting the dioxin hypothesis), or local clusters would be expected in some rural areas
where large amounts of pesticides are sprayed.
Among cluster detection tests, the spatial scan statistic has been widely used in various applications to scan for areas
with high rates, and rarely (if ever) with low rates. Therefore, the goal of this paper was to check the properties of the
scan statistics under a given scenario (Bernoulli distribution, search for clusters with low rates) and to assess its added
value in addressing the sex ratio issue.
This study took place in the Franche-Comté region (France), mainly rural, comprising three main MSWIs, among which only one
had high dioxin emissions level in the past. The study population consisted of 192,490 boys and 182,588 girls born during
the 1975–1999 period.
On the whole, the authors conclude that: (i) spatial and space-time scan statistics provide attractive features to address
the sex ratio issue; (ii) sex ratio is not markedly affected across space and does not provide a reliable screening measure
for detecting reproductive hazards ascribed to environmental factors. |
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Keywords: | Bernoulli distribution clusters endocrine disruptors scan statistics sex ratio spatial epidemiology |
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