试论开展中国农作物病虫害危害流行的长期气象预测研究

从开展中国宵作物病虫害危害浒的长期气象预测研究的必要性出发，结合国内外的研究现状，提出提高宵作物病虫害长期预测的准确性、时效性是宵作物病虫病综合防治的首要措施，并建议围绕中国宵作物病虫害宏观气候可预测性的机理、浒的前兆性气候指标、浒气候区划、影响的关键气象因子、预报模式的气象信息技术改造等方面开展中国宵作物病虫害危害流行的长期气象预测研究。

On developing long-term meteorological prediction research of crops pests and diseases prevailing in China

Beginning with the necessity of developing long-term meteorological prediction research of crops pests and diseases prevailing in China and combining with research situation at home and aboard, that increasing accuracy of long-term prediction is the first measure for integrated control of crops pests and diseases is proposed in this paper. Based on the study on the macroclimatic prediction mechanism, prevailing precursor indices, climatological zonation, key influence factors and the reforming of meteorological information technique for prediction models, developing the research of crops pests and diseases prevailing in China is suggested.