Finding regulation among seemingly unregulated populations: a practical framework for analyzing multivariate population time series for their interactions |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Can?ZhouEmail author Masami?Fujiwara William?E?Grant |
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Institution: | 1.Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Sciences,Texas A&M University,College Station,USA;2.East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences,Shanghai,China |
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Abstract: | The structure of ecological communities is often thought to be strongly influenced by population interactions. The interactions are often labeled as bottom-up and top-down control. Previous approaches to identify these processes often assume each population in the community is itself regulated. Therefore, each time series follows a stationary process. However, complex community structure and a lack of regulation in an individual population can result in inappropriate inferences based on traditional statistical approaches. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to analyze potentially non-stationary time series that are collectively regulated. We demonstrate the method with catch-per-unit-effort time series data of selected populations in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, we found that most of the time series data, which span 26 years, were non-stationary, thus individually unregulated. Species interaction patterns were location-dependent, but where brown shrimp interacted significantly with other species, we identified significant bottom-up forcing. On the other hand, we find almost no evidence of top-down forcing throughout the study areas. |
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