安徽省耕地资源数量变化及其对粮食安全的影响

利用1978年以来30年的耕地资源统计数据，分析了安徽省耕地资源数量变化总体特征，探讨了耕地资源数量变化对粮食安全的影响。其结果表明：（1）耕地资源总量和人均耕地占有量均有呈直线递减趋势，其中耕地资源总量年均减少率为024%，人均耕地面积年均减少率为115%。（2）粮食产量总体呈增加趋〖JP2〗势，但具有较明显波动性，粮食安全仍将面临着很大挑战。（3）粮食总产量与单产水平和复种指数密切相关；而粮食总产量年变化率，则主要受耕地面积和粮食播种面积变化影响。1978年以来，耕地资源数量逐渐成为影响该省粮食产量增加的主要限制因子.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CULTIVATED LAND CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN ANHUI PROVINCE

Based on the statistical data over the past 30 years (1978～2007),the dynamic change of cultivated land in Anhui Province was quantitatively analyzed by using the statistical method.The methods of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used for discussing the relationship between the cultivated land change and food security.The results indicates that:(1)The total area of cultivated land and per capita cultivated land has a decreasing trend year after year basically.The average decrement rate per year of the total area and per capita cultivated land is 0.24% and 1.15% respectively.(2)The total and per capita grain output have increased trend year after year basically.But the fluctuation in them is also very remarkable,so delivery pressure of food security in Anhui Province is still higher in the future.(3)It is a significant correlative relationship between total grain yield and the grain yield of per hectare,multiple cropping index,also between the annual gradient of grain yield and cultivate area,planted grain area.The results of this paper can give some references for protection and utilization of cultivated land in Anhui Province.