中国省域隐含碳排放及其驱动机理时空演变分析

隐含碳排放研究是探索绿色低碳生活方式与推进生态文明建设的重要基础之一。论文基于投入产出分析法与城镇居民消费数据核算2002—2012年中国大陆30个省（除港澳台、西藏外）的城镇居民隐含碳排放,在分析城镇居民隐含碳排放时空演变特征的基础上,运用LMDI-Ⅰ加法数量分解模型分析城镇居民消费隐含碳排放的驱动机制及空间分异特征。研究结果表明：除吉林省外,其余各省的隐含碳排放呈增加趋势;消费水平提高是隐含碳排放量增加的主要因素,其高值主要聚集在北部沿海地区;人口规模对隐含碳排放变化具有双向效应,其强正向作用区与人口分界线所划分的东半壁逐渐趋于一致;导致多数省份隐含碳排放量下降的决定因素是隐含碳排放强度效应,空间差异不大;居民生活方式的变化对隐含碳排放变动的贡献不大,但其空间演变特征较为复杂。总之,各省隐含碳排放特征及其驱动机制存在差异,未来减排侧重点应有所不同。

Analysis on the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Indirect Carbon Emissions and Its Driving Mechanism in China

The study of indirect carbon emissions is one of the important foundations for exploring the low-carbon lifestyle and promoting the development of ecological civilization. This paper counted the indirect carbon emissions of the urban residents of 30 provinces (except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) based on the input-output analysis and the consumption data of urban residents from 2002 to 2012. Based on the analysis of temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of indirect carbon emissions of urban residents, the paper used the LMDI-I addition form, which belongs to the LMDI method, to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms of indirect carbon emissions and its spatial and temporal evolution. The research results showed that the indirect carbon emissions in all provinces showed increasing trends except in Jilin Province. The spatial pattern changes went through the initial phase, the initial differentiation phase, and the rapid evolution phase, and the spatial differentiation degree first declined and then rose. The consumption level is a main factor for indirect carbon emissions’ increasing, and the high value areas mainly gathered in the northern coastal area. The size of the population has a two-way effect on the indirect carbon emissions, and the area of higher positive effect gradually becomes the eastern region which is the same as the area divided by the Hu Huanyong Population Line. The most important factor that caused the reduction of carbon emissions in most provinces is the indirect carbon emission intensity effect with little spatial difference. The changes of residents’ lifestyle contributed little to the indirect carbon emissions, but its spatial evolution characteristics are complicated. According to the differences of four driving mechanisms, the provinces can be divided into vital emission reduction zones, key emission reduction zones and emission reduction concern area. In general, there are differences in the indirect carbon emission characteristics and the driving mechanisms among provinces, and the focus in the future for indirect emission reduction should be different.