我国饲料粮区域产消平衡特征及政策启示

我国饲料粮消耗量大且增长迅速,已经成为我国粮食安全的首要影响因素,准确判断我国饲料粮的区域产消平衡特征对农业相关政策的制订具有重要的现实意义。论文在详细分析各省区不同畜牧产品粮食转化系数的基础上,对区域饲料粮的产消平衡状态及其原因进行了研究。结果显示：1）近年来我国饲料粮消费量快速上升,由2000年的21 730万t增长到2015年的30 549万t,15 a间增长了8 819万t。2）2015年生猪饲料粮消耗量最大,比例达到了44.4%,占据了我国饲料消耗总量的半壁江山。其次为禽蛋与禽肉消耗,消费占比分别为15.8%与12.7%;牛肉、羊肉、牛奶与水产品的饲料粮消费量比例均在5%~9%之间。3）2015年全国饲料粮总计短缺4 276万t,区域上呈现“北余南缺”的格局,东北黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省（区）成为我国最重要的饲料粮供应区域。从粮食转换系数与饲养结构来看,“北粮南运”现象是粮食资源的合理配置。论文提出三点政策建议：1）转变消费结构,增加牛肉与牛奶的消费量;2）推动“以粮为纲”向“粮经饲”三元种植结构转变;3）充分利用国际市场,从全球视角保护粮食安全。

Regional Production and Consumption Equilibrium of Feed Grain in China and Its Policy Implication

Along with the rapid development of China’s economy and urbanization, people’s living standard improves continuously. More and more people are switching from grains to animal foods, such as meat, poultry, egg, fish and milk products. Now, China is the world’s top consumer of meat and grain. China’s feed grain consumption is large and it increases rapidly, which has become the primary factor of food security. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to accurately determine the characteristics of regional supply and demand balance of feed grain in China, which can help formulate relevant policies of agriculture. Based on the analysis of grain conversion coefficient of livestock products at provincial level, this paper examined the statue and causes of regional supply and demand equilibrium of feed grain. The results showed that: 1) China’s feed grain consumption increased rapidly in recent years, from 21 730×10⁴ t in 2000 to 30 549×10⁴ t in 2015. 2) Pig raising was the main part of feed grain consumption in China which accounted for 44.4% of the total consumption in 2015. It was followed by eggs and poultry consumption whose proportions were 15.8% and 12.7%, respectively. The feed consumption of dairy cows, beef cattle, mutton sheep and aquaculture was low and the proportions were between 5%-9%. 3) The shortage of feed grain in China was 4 276×10⁴ t in 2015. There was a feed grains surplus in the north and a terrible shortage in the south. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia in northeast of China have become China’s most important feed grain supply area. The phenomenon of “sending grains from the north to the south” is rational allocation of grain resources from the perspective of food conversion coefficient and feeding structure. This paper provides three policy recommendations: 1) According to the experience of developed countries, Chinese consumption of beef and dairy products is small. In 2015, per capita milk consumption was only one-third of the national recommended volume. So it is suggested that more beef and milk products should be produced and consumed. 2) The agricultural production in China has been following the policy of “taking grain as the key link” for a long time. China’s agriculture should be switched from grain-oriented planting structure to three-element structure that mainly contains grain crops, commercial crops and forage crops. 3) In the past, China’s food security relied more on domestic grain production and ignored the international market. Our land and water resources were all exploited to meet the growing demands of agricultural products. To ensure the food security and preserve the environment, we should make full use of the international market and develop agricultural trades with more countries.