基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。

Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Spatial Suitability Evaluation and Population Carrying Capacity in Guixi County

Delimitation of urban growth boundary can guide the orderly development of urban space and effectively control the unordered urban sprawl. Taking the typical resource city Guixi as the research object, this paper explores effective urban growth boundary delimitation methods from the aspects of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale and two-plan (urban master planning and land-use planning) integration connection. The spatial suitability evaluation takes the natural, spatial accessibility and ecological conditions into consideration and determines the ecological baseline for area not suitable for development and suitability levels for area suitable for development area through the cluster analysis. The baseline and the suitability levels are used to determine the development direction of urban growth boundary. The population of 2020 is forecasted through model of GM(1,1), and the maximum local population is verified based on land resources and water resources. Meanwhile, the urban size is predicated and the sphere of urban growth boundary is delimited. The construction land is reduced by means of spatial suitability evaluation, population carrying capacity, city scale prediction and two-plan integration connection, and thus, the rigid boundary and elastic boundary can be delimited.