The failure of success in fisheries management

Law of the Sea negotiations and The Fishery Conservation and Management Act of 1976 create new options in fisheries management. Historical analysis of two major management programs in the United States of America, Columbia River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), shows two unresolved management problems. One is the innovativeness of fishermen in seeking ways to improve their harvests. The other is changing social priorities that are largely unpredictable and outside the control of fisheries managers. A method for analysis of patterning associated with management goals is illustrated. Since the general management goals are harvest improvement and more predictability, measures are used which show the adequacy of fit and reduction in variability between actual and predicted management outcomes.