林火在空间上的波动性及其对全球变化的响应(Ⅱ)

应用黑龙江省1980～1999年林火数据，分别计算出每年火灾发生的火点的质心经纬度坐标和火场面积质心的经纬度坐标，用其质心坐标与同期的年平均气温和年降水量进行回归分析。结果表明：年降水量和年平均气温对火点和火场质心的波动性具有明显的影响，降水对火场与火点质心在纬度方向的波动影响不敏感，气温对其影响敏感。气温和降水对火场和火点质心在经度方向的波动性均表现敏感。气温升高，火场和火点质心均向北、向西移动，反之，则向东、南移动。火场和火点质心随降水量增加会向西和向南移动，反之，则向东、北移动。

Spatial Fluctuation of Forest Fires and Their Response to Global Change

Forest fires have circles and frequency in time. This paper utilizes the historical forest fires data (1980-1999) in Heilongjiang province, and calculates the centroids of annual fire points and annual fire scars, the coordinates of centroids are denoted in geographic coordinates. We study the fluctuation of the centroids using spectrum analysis method. Results show: the centroids of forest fires scars fluctuate along the axis of East Longitude 126.97°and North Latitude 49.63°, and the fluctuation has clear circle. The circles along Longitude and latitude are both 3.3a. The extreme values in East, West, South and North are 128.68°E, 52.82°N, 123.08°E, 46.86°N respectively. The centroids of forest fires points fluctuate along the axis of East Longitude 127.90°and North Latitude 48.69°, and the fluctuation has no clear circle. The extreme values in East, West, South and North are 129.22°E,50.37°N,125.18°E,47.28°N respectively.