基于BP神经网络方法的山东省海洋生态安全评价

基于2002~2012年山东省海洋生态安全的相关数据,从生态安全、经济安全和社会安全3方面选取26个指标构建海洋生态安全评价指标体系,运用BP神经网络对山东省海洋生态安全发展现状和演变趋势进行评价,并结合评价指数和超载度标准进行分析。结果表明:①BP神经网络通过对历史数据的学习,能够实现海洋生态安全的评价,是一种切实可行的生态安全评价方法。②就各子系统而言,2010~2012年山东省海洋生态安全子系统安全程度呈现上升趋势,经济安全子系统和社会安全子系统的安全程度均呈现下降趋势,综合生态安全程度呈现下降趋势。③总体而言,2010年和2011年山东省海洋生态安全处于较为安全等级,2012年生态安全处于临界安全等级,海洋生态安全出现了恶化的趋势。

Evaluation on marine ecological security in Shandong Province based on BP neural network

Based on the related data of marine ecological security of Shandong Province from 2002 to 2012, this paper constructed a marine ecological security evaluation system for Shandong Province from three aspects which were ecological security, economic security and social security. And then used the BP-ANN model to make a evaluation for marine ecological security, and at last made an analysis of marine ecological security according to the evaluation index. The results are shown as follows: (1) BP neural network method is a feasible marine ecological security evaluation method, which can be well fit the marine ecological security system's development evaluation. (2) In terms of each subsystem's security degree, the ecological security system showed a upward trend, while the economic and social security system both showed a downward trend. (3) Overall, the security level of Shandong Province in 2010 and 2011 were both general safety, and it was criticality safety in 2012.