江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究

根据江苏省不同来源耕地数据差异，适当修正得到1949~2006年耕地数据序列，引入耕地变化率、耕地分布重心等指标，研究江苏省近60年来耕地资源动态变化的基本过程及其空间差异，然后运用相关分析和因子分析初步探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动力，并建立耕地数量变化的多元回归模型。研究表明，江苏省耕地面积经历了由增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速减少的变化过程；苏北滨海平原区、中部里下河浅洼平原区及宁镇扬低山丘岗区耕地有所增加，而苏南长江三角洲平原区耕地则急剧减少，耕地重心呈现向后备资源丰富、人地矛盾较为缓和的地区移动的趋势；人口增长与农业科技进步、经济发展和农业结构调整是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子；预测2020年江苏省耕地总量45449×104 hm2，人均耕地0053 hm2；要保护有限的耕地资源，江苏省必须转变土地利用方式，并实行严格的耕地保护政策。

ON TREND AND DRIVING FORCES OF CULTIVATED LAND USE CHANGE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

According to the difference between different origin cultivated land data,the paper modifies the data series from 1949 to 2006.By introducing the change rate and gravity center of cultivated land,the paper studies the change process of cultivated land and spatial difference in Jiangsu Province nearly 60 years,then uses the correlation analysis and the factorial analysis to discuss the main driving forces leading to quantity change of cultivated land,and establishes the multiple regression model of quantity change.The results indicate that the change of cultivated land has experienced by an increase sudden reduction slow reduction rapid reduction process;the cultivated land in Subei coastal plain area,central Lixiahe shallow billabong plain area and Ning Zhen Yang low hills area has increased,but in Yangtze River delta plain area it has drastically reduced;the gravity center of cultivated land has moved to the regions where there are more reserve resources and less contradiction between human and land.The population growth,the progress of science and technology in agriculture,the economic development and the agricultural restructuring are the main driving forces.The research forecasts that total quantity of cultivated land will reach 45449×104 hectare in Jiangsu Province by 2020,per person 0053 hectare.Protecting the limited cultivated land,it must transform the way of land utilization and implement the strict protection policy.