Mitigation of climate change impacts on maize productivity in northeast of Iran: a simulation study |
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Authors: | Azam Lashkari Amin Alizadeh Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei Mohammad Bannayan |
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Institution: | (1) Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Faculty of Agriculture, P.O. Box 91775-1163, Mashhad, Iran; |
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Abstract: | Development and evaluation of mitigation strategies are fundamental to manage climate change risks. This study was built on
(1) quantifying the response of maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield to potential impacts of climate change and (2) investigating the effectiveness of changing sowing date of
maize as a mitigation option for Khorasan Province which is located in northeast of Iran. Two types of General Circulation
Models (GCM: (United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Center :HadCM3) and (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace: IPCM4)) and three scenarios
(A1B, A2 and B1) at four locations (Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar) employed in this study. Long Ashton Research
Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed for generating the future climate. The Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Maize
was used for crop growth simulation under projected climate conditions. The results showed the simulated grain yields of maize
gradually would decrease (from −1% to −39%) during future 100 years compared to baseline under different scenarios and two
GCM at all study locations. The simulation results suggested that delayed sowing date from May to June at all study locations,
except Sabzevar location is the most effective mitigation option for avoiding thermal stress at end of growth period. In addition,
shifting in sowing date to March or April will be beneficial in terms of obtaining higher yields in Sabzevar. Grain yield
did not show special trend from north to south of Khorasan Province in the future climate. In general, change of sowing date
may be quite beneficial to mitigate climate change impacts on grain yield of maize in northeast of Iran. |
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