LNG船舶进出港航行移动安全区宽度定量计算分析

为保障液化天然气(LNG)船舶进出港通航安全,提出一种基于LNG船舶碰撞事故概率和风险的LNG船舶移动安全区宽度界定方法。该方法以船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG池火危害模型为基础,计算LNG船舶在航行过程中的事故概率和风险,并根据其分布特征,结合事故概率与风险可接受标准,定量界定LNG船舶移动安全区的宽度。研究表明,LNG船舶移动安全区宽度与通航水域交通流分布、事故船舶的排水量、航行速度等相关。在水上交通管理应用中,可根据LNG船舶及应用水域交通的实际情况确定LNG船舶进出港航行移动安全区的宽度。

A Quantitative Method for Establishing the Width of Moving Safety Zone around LNG Carrier

In order to ensure the LNG ships navigation safety,a calculation method based on ship collision probability and quantitative risk analysis was worked out for delimiting the width of Moving Safety Zone around LNG carrier.Based on the ship collision probability model,the ship collision damage model and the pool fire hazards model,a risk model of LNG carriers was built.Then by analyzing the distribution characteristics of LNG carriers' risk during the navigation and collecting the acceptable collision probability and risk criteria of the industry,a reasonable way to establish the width of Moving Safety Zone around LNG Carrier was developed.The study shows that the width of Moving Safety Zone around LNG Carrier is bound up with traffic volume/composition/route geometry of the given waterway and the displacements/velocityies of the vessels.