Natural factors and human modifications contributing to marsh loss in Louisiana's Mississippi River Deltaic Plain

Natural factors and human modifications contribute to the estimated annual loss of 10,200 ha of coastal land in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain Region of south Louisiana. This paper combines information on regional geology and human-induced habitat alterations to evaluate the relative importance of human and natural factors to marsh loss. Data on marsh area and habitat type for 139 7.5-min quadrangles were calculated from maps based on aerial photographs from 1955/56 and 1978, and data on regional geology obtained from published maps were used to construct multivariate model relating initial marsh area, change in urban and agricultural area, change in canal and spoil area, canal area in 1978, depth of sediment overlying the Prairie terrace, and subdelta age to marsh loss. The model indicated that between 25.0% and 39.0% of the marsh loss that occurred during the 23-year period was related to canal and spoil construction, and between 9.5% and 12.7% was related to urban and agricultural development. These are minimal estimates of loss because they do not include many secondary effects (for example, canal orientation, saltwater intrusion, and eutrophication) that can also result in indirect loss. Depth of sediment, initial marsh area, delta lobe age by 1978 canal and spoil area interaction, and indirect effects not included in the model accounted for remaining marsh loss.