Mechanism analysis and risk assessment of escalation scenario in chemical industry zones |
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| Authors: | Xin-mei Zhang Chen Chen |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Shandong, Qingdao 266555, China;2. College of Economy and Management, China University of Petroleum, Shandong, Qingdao 266555, China;1. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Risk Assessment and Control on Chemical Process, School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, China;2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban and Industrial Safety, Institute of Safety Engineering, School of Urban Construction and Safety Engineering, Nanjing University of Technology, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China;1. Univ. Lille Nord de France, F-59000 Lille, France;2. UVHC, TEMPO Lab., “Production, Service, Information” Team, F-59313 Valenciennes, France;3. UMR STMR – CNRS, Institut Charles Delaunay, University of Technology of Troyes (UTT), 12 rue Marie Curie, 10010 Troyes, France;1. Laboratory of Industrial Safety and Environmental Sustainability - DICAM, Alma Mater Studiorum – Università di Bologna, via Terracini n.28, 40131 Bologna, Italy;2. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Industriale, Università di Pisa, Largo Lucio Lazzarino n. 2, 56126 Pisa, Italy;3. Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Babe?-Bolyai University, Fântânele Street, n. 30, 400294 Cluj-Napoca, Romania |
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| Abstract: | Many major hazard installations (MHIs) are located in chemical industry zones and escalation effect may be triggered when the fire or explosion occurs on a MHI. To investigate the mechanism of the accident escalation, a systematic quantitative assessment methodology is proposed by the considering the feature and uncertainty of the escalation scenario. The main accident energy carriers of the escalation are heat radiation, overpressure of blast and fragments. The escalation probability, joint influence of the three energy carriers and risk characterization of the accident scenarios are carried out. By the new methodology, the escalation scenario in chemical industry zones can be analyzed and the risk escalation morphology is demonstrated by the simulation software. The visualized risk cloud figure gives a supplementary way to prevent the escalation scenario in chemical industry zones planning. |
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