Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network |
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| Authors: | Nima Khakzad Faisal Khan Paul Amyotte |
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| Institution: | 1. Process Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John''s, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada;2. Department of Process Engineering & Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3J 2X4, Canada;1. Alma Mater Studiorum, Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, via Terracini 28, 40131 Bologna, Italy;2. Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), Fire & Process Safety Unit, Harpur Hill, Buxton, Derbyshire, SK17 9JN, United Kingdom;1. Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NL, Canada A1B 3X5;2. Department of Process Engineering and Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3J 2X4;1. Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John''s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada;2. Department of Production and Quality Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), S.P. Andersens veg 5, 7031 Trondheim, Norway;3. Department of Process Engineering and Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;4. LISES, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica, Ambientale e dei Materiali, Alma Mater Studiorum – Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy;5. Safety and Security Science Group (S3G), Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands;1. Safety and Risk Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John?s, NL, Canada A1B 3X5;2. Offshore Safety and Risk Management Group, Australian Maritime College, University of Tasmania, Launceston, TAS 7250, Australia;3. SINTEF Technology and Society, Safety Research, 7465 Trondheim, Norway |
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| Abstract: | Among the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique. |
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