Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks |
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| Authors: | Enrico Zio Terje Aven |
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| Institution: | 1. Chair on System Science and the Energetic Challenge, European Foundation for New Energy – Electricite de France, Ecole Centrale Paris-Supelec, Paris, France;2. Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy;3. University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway;1. Department of Process Engineering and Applied Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3J 2X4, Canada;2. Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John''s, NL A1B 3X5, Canada;3. Professional Loss Control, Fredericton, NB, Canada;1. Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway;2. Linda Martens Pedersen, Safetec, Oslo, Norway;1. Nuclear Engineering Department, Technical University of Madrid, José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain;2. Modeling and Simulation Department, Nuclear Safety Council (MOSI CSN), Justo Dorado 11, 28040 Madrid, Spain;1. Operations and Systems Management, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Portsmouth, Portland Building, P01 3DE, United Kingdom;2. Strategy Enterprise and Innovation, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Portsmouth, Richmond Building, P01 3DE, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed. |
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