实物期权在流域生态补偿机会成本测算中的应用

生态补偿标准的确定是流域生态补偿核心问题之一，而流域生态补偿标准中机会成本的测算是个难题。流域生态环境资源的专用性，以及自然资源自身价值的不确定性导致生态补偿额中机会成本具有很大的不确定性。现有的机会成本测算方法中没有考虑到这种不确定性。金融学中的实物期权理论给出了使投资者考虑未来不确定因素，把握投资机会价值，使项目价值最大化的方法。基于实物期权理论中的二项式实物期权模型，考虑由于流域生态环境效益价值波动的不确定性因素影响，构建了流域生态补偿机会成本实物期权测算模型。以新安江流域为例，重点考虑新安江流域生态环境效益中渔业效益与旅游效益未来市场发展的不确定性因素影响，测算了机会成本价值，并与已有的实证调查法与对比法的结果进行对比，验证了模型的可行性

APPLICATION OF REAL OPTION TO THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION IN RIVER BASIN

One of the key issues of river basin ecological compensation is the compensation standard. The opportunity cost is a problem in compensation standard.The opportunity cost has the character of uncertainty because of the specificity of ecological environment resources and the uncertainty of natural resources.The current opportunity cost accounting method didn’t consider the uncertainty of opportunity cost.The real option theory provided the methods to maximizing the value of project and getting the investment opportunity.The real option model of opportunity cost in river basin ecological compensation was set up based on the binomial expression real option model.The Xi’anjiang basin example was applied for the model and tested the feasibility of the real option model.〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗