SO2排放造成的森林损失计算:以湖南省为例

SO₂排放对我国的森林生态系统造成了严重的损害,因而损失计算对于SO₂控制具有重要意义,但是目前仍缺乏有效的方法计算不同排放水平下的森林损失.本研究以硫沉降超临界负荷作为计算森林损失的参数,推导了适用于我国硫沉降导致森林损失的剂量-响应函数,并以湖南省为例,以1995为基准年,计算了2000年～2020年高中低3种SO₂排放方案下的森林损失.研究结果表明,随着今后湖南省经济和能源消费的增长,森林损失将继续增加.高排放方案下2020年SO₂排放将增长1.2倍,但森林损失增长4.3倍,边际损失高于6000元/t.在当前排放水平下对SO₂排放进行削减,边际效益达到1500元/t,因此控制SO₂具有显著的经济效益.对湖南案例的不确定性分析显示,计算方法有较高的可靠性.研究结果为区域SO₂控制策略的优化提供了支持.

Valuation of Forest Damage Cost from SO2 Emission:A Case Study in Hunan Province

Large amount SO₂ emission caused serious damage of forest ecosystem in China and calculation of the damage cost is an important issue for policy making. However, no applicable method was developed to estimate forest damage under different SO₂ emission scenarios. Basing on previous field researches on sulfur related forest impact in China and recent critical load mapping research, this paper presented a model for forest damage calculation by developing a dose response function that related the damage to cumulative sulfur critical loads. This model was applied to the forests in Hunan, a province in acid rain control zone in China. Results showed that in the business as usual case, SO₂ emission in Hunan will increase by 120% from 1995 (8.82 mil. ton) to 2020 (19.56 mil. ton), but damage cost will increase by 4.3 times, reaching 6.19 billion RMB in 2020 Results also showed the measures for SO₂ control were cost effective because the marginal damage cost will be about 6000 RMB per ton SO₂ in 2020 in BAU case. At current SO₂ emission level, marginal benefit will be about 1500 RMB per ton. Uncertainty analysis demonstrated that this model provides reasonable damage estimates and would therefore be applicable in a broad range of policy settings.