The role of biotic carbon stocks in stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at safe levels |
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| Institution: | 1. Natural Resources Defense Council, 1200 New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA;2. Greenpeace International, Keizersgracht 176, 1016 DW Amsterdam, The Netherlands;1. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2820 Faucette Dr., Campus Box 8001, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States;2. Department of Forest Science, Federal University of Lavras, Campus Universitario, Campus Box 3037, LEMAF, Lavras, Minas Gerais 37200-000, Brazil;3. Department of Forest Science, University of São Paulo, Av. Padua Dias 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil;4. Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 310 W Campus Dr, Campus Box 169, 24061 Blacksburg, VA, United States;5. Fibria Celulose S.A. Rod. Aracruz, B. Riacho, Aracruz 29192-000, Brazil;1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), and School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;2. Environmental Policy Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands;3. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China;1. Research Center for Digital Mountain and Remote Sensing Application,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;4. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Research Center for Remote Sensing and GIS, and School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Laval University, Quebec, G1V 0A6, Canada;2. Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University, Quebec, G1V 0A6, Canada;3. Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks, Logistics and Transportation, Canada;4. FOR@C Research Consortium, Laval University, Quebec, G1 V 0A6, Canada;1. School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;2. College of Architecture and Environment, Shanghai University of Technology, Shanghai 200093, China |
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| Abstract: | The goal of the Climate Convention and its Kyoto Protocol is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a safe level. This requires both strict limits on emissions from fossil fuels and effective management of biotic carbon stocks. If fossil fuel emissions from 1990 to 2100 are limited to 600 PgC, biotic carbon stocks must increase by 120 PgC to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 450 ppmv. Establishing an appropriate policy regime to accomplish this goal is complicated by a factor of six discrepancy between estimates of the current biotic sink based on national emissions inventories compared with global carbon cycle model calculations. Appropriate policies must also be designed to create incentives for technological innovation in the energy sector and minimize the risk of granting emission credits for biotic carbon sequestration that proves to be temporary. |
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