基于协整和因果分析的我国安全生产宏观政策干预研究

为进一步分析我国安全生产政策的实施效果及存在问题,根据政策时效干预度量化模型,采用协检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析等计量方法对1978-2006年我国特别重大事故发生趋势与政策时效干预力度关系进行量化分析,得出特别重人事故的发生与政策时效干预力度问存在长期均衡关系,且在10%的显著水平下,特别重大事故的发生是政策时效干预力度加强的格兰杰原因.同时分析表明,目前我国安全生产政策干预表现出两大缺点:被动性和滞后性.因此,应逐步开展生产安全事故宏观预警与政策模拟等研究,为提高安全生产宏观政策干预的主动性和前瞻性提供技术支持.

Study on the state macro intervention into the work safety policy in China based on the co-integration and causality test

The present paper is aimed to introduce our analysis of the state macro intervention into the work safety policy in the countrybased on the co-integration and Granger causality tests of the existing problems. As is known, the economic production plan and the execution of the national production plan has to be done and guided by the governments of all levels, and therefore the actual implementation effect and currently existing problems of work safety policy are to be regulated in China by the influence of the governments, which makes it necessary to analyze the relation between the number of major industry accidents and the Aging Intervention Degree (AID) of work safety policy. On the basis of the quantitative model of AID, we have calculated their values from 1978 to 2006 in the country by referring the statistics given by the corresponding departments. In addition, we have also managed to gain the two sequences consisting of the three-year sliding average of AID and the number of major industry accidents . The analysis of such a relation between them has been done by using some econometric methods such as co-integration test, Granger causality test and the impulse response analysis. The results of our research indicate that the cointegration between the occurrence of major accidents and AID of work safety policy is stable, besides, the coming-up of major accidents is the Granger causality of AID on the 10% level, which proves that the government intervention is responsible for the number of major accidents to a large extent. In the mean time, the analysis illustrates that a work safety policy can only be made into effect after two or three years of work and then it may probably come into invalid seven-to-eight years late. To sum up, the intervention of present work safety policy has two main weaknesses, namely, passiveness and lagging behind. Therefore, research on the early warning of accidents and simulations of policy should be paid more attention to and be then carried out step by step so as to provide technical supports for improving the initiative and foresight of the intervention of macro work safety policy.