高速公路断面运行车速分布特征研究

在探讨车速分布指标与交通安全关系的基础上,对影响高速公路安全性设计与评价的运行车速指标分布特征进行深入研究。以高速公路大量实测运行车速数据为分析对象,通过研究断面运行车速频率分布特征,利用PP概率分布图和单样本K-S检验方法,对车速数据进行正态,Weibull(威尔布),Gamma(伽玛)及Logistic等4种分布形式的拟合检验。基于统计学原理,提出求解运行车速特征指标的方法。结果表明:高速公路断面运行车速服从正态分布;采用概率分布累积函数可有效解决运行车速基础理论中原始观测车速数据的指标准确量化问题。

Research on Section Operating Speed Distribution Characteristics of Expressway

Based on the discussion about the relationship between speed distribution index and traffic safety,the distribution character of operating speed that influences the safety design and evaluation of expressway was studied.By taking a great deal of surveyed data about operating speed as the analysis objects and studying the operating speed frequency distribution characteristics of expressway section,the Normal,Weibull,Gamma,Logistic distribution form were tested through PP frequency distribution figure and single swatch K-S test.The calculation method of operating speed characteristic index was put forward based on the statistical theory.The results show that the operating speed distribution form is Normal distribution,and adopting the probability distribution cumulative function can effectively solve the problem of the exact quantification of original operating speed data index in the basic theory of operating speed.