环鄱阳湖区水足迹的动态变化评价

水足迹模型是计量水资源承载力的一个较新颖且日趋成熟的方法。水资源状况对鄱阳湖区生态系统的平衡、稳定以及生态系统良性循环有着重要意义。将水足迹模型运用于环鄱阳湖区进行实证研究，通过计量模型计算出环鄱阳湖区1989~2008年水足迹的时间序列值，并评价其承载状况。结果显示，近20 a来，环鄱阳湖区的水足迹需求由1989年的735亿m3增加至2008年的110亿m3，呈现出波动上升趋势。至今为止水足迹未超载，但盈余空间呈减少趋势。最后从优化水资源利用、倡导绿色消费和促进区域间贸易交流等降低水足迹的需求和增大水足迹供给的角度提出了提高水足迹承载力的对策。进而从水足迹的角度为环鄱阳湖区提高生态系统承载力提供理论依据，促进江西省鄱阳湖生态经济区的建设

EVALUATION OF DYNAMIC CHANGES OF WATER FOOTPRINT IN THE AREA AROUND THE POYANG LAKE

Water footprint(WF) is a new and mature approach to measure ecological carrying capacity.Water resources status is significant to the ecosystem balance,stability and healthy ecological system of the Poyang Lake.This paper conducted a comprehensive use of WF model in the Poyang Lake,and calculated out time series values of WF during 1989~2008 through the econometric model,and then evaluated their own load conditions.The conclusion showed that the WF value in the Area around Poyang Lake rose from 73.5 billion cubic meters in 1989 to 110 billion cubic meters in 2008,which presented a rising tendency in the past two decades.Though it was overloaded,the surplus space showed a decreasing trend.This paper proposed countermeasures such as optimizing of water use,proposing of green consumption model,promoting regional trade exchanges for improving the regional ecological carrying capacity from the aspects of reducing the demand pressures of WF,and also from increasing the supply of WF.This study could provide a theoretical basis for improving carrying capacity of Poyang Lake Region from the perspective of the water footprint and then promote the construction of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone in Jiangxi Province.