Coastal dynamics and adaptation to uncertain sea level rise: Optimal portfolios for salt marsh migration |
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| Institution: | 1. Virginia Institute of Marine Science and Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA;2. Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA, 01610, USA;3. Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA;4. Monash University, Australia;5. University of Melbourne, Australia;1. School of Environmental and Rural Studies, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia;2. Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, United States;3. School of Economics and Center for the Study of Security and Drugs (CESED), Universidad de Los Andes, Colombia;1. Land Environment Economics & Policy Institute, Department of Economics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PU, UK;2. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK;3. University of Siena, Department of Political Science and International, Italy;4. Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento, Via Vigilio Inama, 5, 38122, Trento, Italy;1. University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage AK, 99501, United States;2. Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, 120 Kroon Hall, New Haven CT, 06510, United States;3. McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St West, Canada;1. Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, USA;2. Department of Economics, University of Alaska-Anchorage, USA;3. Institute for State Economy, Nankai University, China;4. School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University-Bloomington, USA |
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| Abstract: | The sustainability of dynamic natural systems often depends on their capacity to adapt to uncertain climate-related changes, where different management options may be combined to facilitate this adaptation. Salt marshes exemplify such a system. Marsh sustainability under rapid sea level rise requires the preservation of transgression zones - undeveloped uplands onto which marshes migrate. Whether these uplands eventually become marsh depends on uncertain sea level rise and natural dynamics that determine migration onto different land types. Under conditions such as these, systematically diversified management actions generally outperform ad hoc or non-diversified alternatives. This paper develops the first adaptation portfolio model designed to optimize the benefits of a migrating coastal system. Results are illustrated using a case study of marsh conservation in Virginia, USA. Results suggest that models of this type can enhance adaptation benefits beyond those available through current approaches. |
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| Keywords: | Benefit Diversification Risk Spatial Climate change Wetland Optimal conservation Geomorphology |
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