Bus fleet emissions: new strategies for mitigation by adopting natural gas

Energy consumption is related to local, regional and global impacts. Thus, by comparing different replacement scenarios of diesel vehicles with compressed natural gas, this article estimates pollutants and greenhouse gases emission in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The calculation of fuel consumption is based on fleet characteristics, in terms of vehicle age, the average annual distance travelled by bus depending on the year and average fuel consumption. These values served as a basis to develop scenarios considering that a percentage of new vehicles that will be phased out and replaced with ones running on natural gas. Results show that the total avoided emissions can range from 579 thousand tons to 1.375 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ over 20 years, depending on the scenario. For particulate matter, accumulated avoided emissions vary from 251 thousand to 584 tons over 20 years. The replacement of diesel buses with natural gas-fuelled buses presents favourable results, in comparison with the tendency scenario for CO₂ and particulate matter. Thus, a public policy for fuel replacement in largest cities, such as Sao Paulo, has an important global impact, especially when allowing the introduction of a renewable energy source, such as biogas. It will benefit from the natural gas previous infrastructure, which is largely available in Brazil. As recommendations, we explain the need to review the city of Sao Paulo Climate Change Law to allow the use of natural gas. Fuel replacement should be integrated with a public policy/public policies and operational strategies to promote citizens´ health as well as historical, cultural and heritage conservation for the city and its future generations.