中国雾霾空间分布特征及影响因素分析

近年来我国雾霾天气频发,以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)为核心的大气污染物对人体健康和大气环境质量造成了严重威胁,已经成为当前不容忽视且亟需解决的重大民生问题和环境问题,深入分析雾霾污染的形成原因和影响因素对于科学制定切实有效的治霾政策具有重要的现实意义。本文基于我国288个地级以上城市2015年1月—2017年2月的月均空气质量AQI数据,首先采用空间统计方法对雾霾污染空间分布的季节特征进行可视化描述,其次通过空间自相关指数对雾霾污染的空间集聚特征进行了实证检验,最后在此基础上建立空间计量模型对影响雾霾污染的社会经济因素进行了经验识别。结果表明:(1)我国雾霾污染的季节性特征明显,夏季空气质量状况最好,春季和秋季次之,冬季污染最严重且波及范围广,其中河北南部、河南北部、山西南部和陕西关中地区是污染重灾区,季均空气质量均为中度污染以上。(2)雾霾污染存在显著的空间正相关特征,我国东部沿海地区表现为显著的低低集聚,华北平原及周边地区呈现显著的高高集聚特征。(3)空间回归结果显示,我国雾霾污染与经济增长的关系在一定程度上与EKC曲线假说相符,其中二产畸高的产业结构、民用汽车保有量的增多和省会城市均对雾霾污染有显著的正向促进作用,但人口密度和绿化水平对雾霾污染的影响并不显著。因此,治霾政策应坚持城市内部以促进产业结构转型升级、鼓励使用新能源汽车和共享单车、疏散省会城市的职能为主,城市外部应以区域联防联控为主,从而达到缓解和改善大气环境的目的。

Spatial distribution of haze pollution and its influencing factors

The haze weather occurs frequently in recent years which has become a neglect major livelihood problem and environmental issue.PM10 and PM2.5 which is the core of the atmosphere pollutants threaten people's life and environment quality.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze the causes and influencing factors of haze pollution in order to formulate effective policy to solve haze problem.First,based on AQI data of 288 prefecture-level cities in China from January 2015 to February 2017,this article describes the seasonal characteristics of haze pollution spatial distribution in China,by using spatial statistical method.Second,it uses global and local spatial autocorrelation index to test the spatial agglomeration characteristics of haze pollution.Finally,it adopts the spatial econometric model to identify socioeconomic factors that significantly influence haze pollution.The results show that the seasonal characteristics of haze pollution in China are obvious;the best air quality is in summer;the most severe pollution is in winter,especially in south of Hebei Province,north of Henan Province,south of Shanxi Province and the Guanzhong Area in Shaanxi Province where the seasonal average air quality is above moderate pollution.The results show that there is significant spatial autocorrelation of haze pollution.The characteristics of the eastern coastal area show low-low agglomeration;the characteristics of North China Plain and the surrounding areas show significantly high agglomeration.Additionally,the results show that the relationship between haze pollution and economic growth in China is consistent with the hypothesis of EKC curve;the industrial structure,the number of civilian vehicle and the provincial capital all have significantly positive effects on haze pollution,but the effect of population density and greening level on haze pollution is not significant.From an internal perspective,the haze control policy should focus on upgrading the industrial structure,on encouraging the use of new-energy vehicles and shard bicycles,and on decentralizing the provincial capital.From an external perspective,it should focus on regional joint control to mitigate pollution and improve the quality of the atmosphere.