京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究

为探讨京津冀地区温室气体排放强度变化的影响因素,采用对数平均迪式分解模型及归因分析(LMDI-Attribution)方法,基于1996—2014年数据从细分行业角度进行研究。针对温室气体排放强度作产业结构、能源强度和排放因子三因素LMDI乘法分解,对温室气体排放强度变化的影响效应作归因分析,量化4个行业对分解因素影响效应的贡献,得到以下主要结论:1996—2014年京津冀地区温室气体排放强度主要呈现下降趋势,累计下降23.05%。其中,能源强度是温室气体排放强度下降的主导因素,其影响效应为-61.18%,对这一影响效应贡献最大的是工业,并且四大经济部门均通过能源强度在不同程度上使得温室气体排放强度有所减小,可见"阶梯电价"、"千家企业节能项目"、"十大重点节能项目"等相关政策在工业发展中对提高能源效率的作用明显。产业结构使得温室气体排放强度增加23.53%,其主要贡献者是工业,说明"工业产品出口退税率调整"等一系列政策的效果不明显;然而农业则使得温室气体排放强度降低,贡献值为3.09%。碳排放因子在1996—2014年间对温室气体排放强度的影响为60.47%,是京津冀地区温室气体排放强度增加的主要因素,说明京津冀地区的能源结构不合理。工业对这一效应的贡献最大为55.97%。可见,工业在京津冀地区的温室气体减排工作中起到最为关键的作用。

Study on the changes in carbon intensity and driving factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model and the Attribution analysis are introduced to study the changes in greenhouse gas emission intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.It analyzes data from the year 1996 to 2014 based on industrial segmentation.The emission intensity is decomposed into three factors:structure,energy intensity and emission factor.Based on the decomposition results,the attribution analysis is applied to assess the contribution that each individual economic sector makes in a quantitative way.Results indicate that the emission intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei decreased by 23.05％ in total from 1996 to 2014.Energy intensity was the most important factor responsible for the decrease,accounting for-61.18％,in which the industrial sector takes up the most,followed by transportation sector and commercial & service sector.However,the agricultural sector contributes to the decrease in emission intensity through energy structure adjustment by 3.09％.Carbon emission contributed by 60.47％ during the years from 1996 to 2014,remaining key factor for the increase in greenhouse gas density,which shows the poor energy structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The industrial structure results in the increase in emission intensity by 23.53％.The industrial sector is most to be blamed,which indicated the failure of the policies such as adjustment in industrial products export tax rebates rates.The emission factor raised the emission intensity by 43.85％,mainly relying on the industrial sector.Based on the results,the effectiveness of related policies was evaluated,including'Differential Electricity Pricing Policy','Top 1000 Enterprises Energy Saving Program','10 Key Energy Saving Projects Program'and'Adjusting Export Tax Rebating Rate of Some Commodities'.Furthermore,the policies of energy intensity,industrial structure and emission factor on each economic sector should be implemented to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions.