流动人口居留意愿的梯度变动与影响机制

随着城乡利益格局的变化,新生代流动人口的居留意愿呈现出新的特征,其变动与城市类型密切相关。利用调查数据进行分析,发现新生代流动人口的居留意愿表现出随流入地的城市类型而梯度变动的特征,即呈现出在大城市的居留意愿强,中小城市的流动性强和特大城市的返乡意愿强的特征,大城市是新生代流动人口实现留城理想与个人发展最佳的平台。但是总的来说,新生代流动人口的流动行为与第一代流动人口同中存异,没有出现根本性的改变。利用多层模型,对新生代流动人口居留意愿的影响机制进行了实证分析,发现城市类型、经济收入、社会融入与身份认同、家庭迁居、户籍可获得性是影响居留意愿的重要因素。此外,户籍可获得性与新生代流动人口身份认同交互作用显著的影响了新生代流动人口的居留意愿,并进一步增强了居留意愿在不同城市类型的差异。这体现出户籍制度对流动者的影响逐步由早期的福利隔绝向心理隔绝转变。对不同城市类型新生代流动人口居留意愿的差异进行量化分析发现,特大城市和大城市流动者的居留意愿呈现刚性,而超大城市和中小城市流动者居留意愿具有弹性。根据上述分析提出政策建议:将大城市作为吸纳流动人口的主导区域构建城市发展规划策略,发挥特大城市和大城市的集聚效应,促进区域的产业发展;在城市社区建设和城市文明建设方面,为流动人口与城市居民的相互融合提供政策支持;依托政府、社会组织与学校,提升新生代流动人口的人力资本。

Gradient effect and influence mechanism of migrant's residence preference

With the change of urban and rural interests pattern,residence preference of new generation migrants represents new features.This article examines the gradient effect of migrants' residence preference in immigrant cities using survey data,finding that they prefer to settle in big cities,who live in towns tend to flow to other cities,and who live in metropolitans would return hometowns.Therefore,big cites are optimum choice for migrants not only to settle down but also to achieve individual development.In general,the cross generational comparison shows similarity.Using multilevel model to analyze the residing preference influence mechanism.Empirical research shows that the city type,income,social integration,social identity,family migration and achievement of Hukou are main factors.The interaction effect between Hukou system and social identity significantly affects residence preference and intensify the gradient effect among cities significantly,representing that the effect of Hukou system on migrants developed from welfare isolation to psychological isolation.This article argues the quantitative effect of the city types to the new generation migrants,finding that the effects of metropolitans and big city on residence preference are robust,and effects of small town and super city are with elasticity.Migrants' aggregation in big cities should be noticed in making urban development planning.Based on the analysis,this article recommends to construct the big cities' absorb migrants in city planning.enhance agglomeration effects,and promote regional industrial development in urban areas by attracting immigrant workforce,etc.