有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究

有色金属作为国际上流通量较大的大宗产品,近年来其价格的频繁剧烈波动受到学界和业界的高度关注。从有色金属国际贸易的交易量数据看,中国、美国、巴西等20个国家是有色金属国际贸易的主体,贸易量较大的是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属。本文选取了国际贸易中铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的主要进口国和出口国,在已有研究的基础上,从供需、实体经济和货币金融三个维度选取变量,运用国家之间构成的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,分析四种有色金属价格的波动及其影响因素;通过铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格的脉冲响应函数,比较分析铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动影响因素的不同。研究发现:(1)铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动均受国内生产总值和货币供应量的影响,供需因素对有色金属价格产生长期的影响,货币供给量对有色金属价格的影响短暂而剧烈;(2)国内生产总值和贸易量与铜价的波动密切相关,货币供应量和消费者价格指数与铝、铅、锌价格的波动密切相关;(3)有色金属主要贸易国的各个变量对铜、铝、铅、锌价格波动的贡献程度不同。铜贸易国的贸易量对铜价波动的贡献度要高于其他有色金属贸易国家;铝、铅、锌贸易国家的金融因素对铝、铅、锌价格的影响要强于铜贸易国家。最后,本文从进口国角度对中国有色金属进口提出了建议:中国是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的最大进口国,应密切关注有色金属价格走势,建立健全有色金属价格的实时监测和预警机制,加快对有色金属价格波动的反应速度,利用金融手段避险趋利。

Factors affecting price fluctuations of nonferrous in world market

As widely-circulated bulk commodities in world market, nonferrous metals have attracted great attention to the sharp price fluctuations from the academia and industry in recent years.From their trading volume in world market, major importers and exporters include 20 countries like China, the United States and Brazil, with such four nonferrous metals as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc accounting for a great share.The major importers and exporters of the four metals are selected.Based on the existing researches, this paper chooses variables from supply and demand, real economy as well as currency and finance.And then, the panel data between the above-mentioned importers and exporters are applied to build PVAR model and analyze the price and influencing factors.The impulse response function concerning the prices of the four metals is used to compare the differences between the influencing factors.The findings reveal that: ① the price fluctuations of the four metals are affected by GDP and money supply.Long-term effect comes from supply and demand, and the short-term from supply.②GDP and trading volume shows a strong association with copper price fluctuation, while money supply and CPI are closely related to the fluctuations of aluminum, lead and zinc.③The variables of the major importers and exporters contribute to the price fluctuations of four metals to different degrees.Copper importers and exporters make larger contributions than those of the other three metals.The financial factors of aluminum, lead and zinc importers and exporters show a greater effect than copper ones.This paper proposes suggestions for import of nonferrous metals in China from the perspective of importers.China as the largest importer of the four metals should keep an eye on the prices, establish a sound real-time monitoring and early warning mechanism, respond faster to price fluctuations and hedge risks with financial means.