政府主导、人口流动与城乡收入差距

中国经济增长具有典型的政府主导特征,通过构造一个包含城镇和农村经济产出的社会福利函数来分析政府主导型经济增长对城乡收入差距的影响关系,并基于中国城镇化发展实际分析了人口流动对城乡收入差距的影响,在此基础上提出研究假说,统计中国1997—2014年省际面板数据,采用泰尔指数测度城乡收入差距并分别进行静态和动态回归分析与检验。静态研究发现政府主导和人口流动显著地拉大了城乡收入差距,但是二者的交互项对城乡收入差距的确具有收敛效应,即随着人口流动的增加,政府主导对城乡收入差距的边际贡献会降低,同样随着政府主导的提升也会降低人口流动对城乡收入差距的边际贡献,这种影响关系在分区域的回归中依然成立,并通过了稳健性检验;动态研究发现全国和分区域中城乡收入差距的变动存在显著的正向路径依赖特征,全国层面政府主导显著地拉大了城乡收入差距,而人口流动及其与政府主导的交互项则显著地缩小了城乡收入差距,但分区域来看政府主导和人口流动对城乡收入差距的影响存在显著的区域异质性,并通过了稳健性检验。因此缩小城乡收入差距不应设置单一的政策目标,需要建立多方面的政策配套体系,逐步矫正政府主导型经济中造成的政府职能异化,精准识别地方财政收支量的规模和结构条件,扩大涉农业务投资的规模,激活农村经济发展活力;在城乡户籍制度改革中进一步打破城乡分割藩篱,大力发展非农产业,增加农民的非农就业机会,促进农民的非农化就业和城镇化迁移,提升城镇化发展质量;最终通过一系列的配套性制度安排,旨在加强支持农业发展和农村建设,促进农民收入增长的制度供给,实现城乡共享发展。

Government dominance,population mobility and urban-rural income gap

Government dominance is the typical feature of China's economic growth.This article built a social welfare function which included urban and rural economic output to analyze the impact of economic growth led by the government on the urban-rural income gap, and the influence of population migration on the urban-rural income gap, based on China's urbanization development, and then put forward the research hypothesis on this basis.Based on provincial panel data of China from 1997 to 2014, the paper then used Theil index to measure urban-rural income gap and to do static and dynamic regression analysis.The static regression showed that government dominance and migration both enlarge the urban-rural income gap, but the interaction of the two had a significant convergence effect on the gap.This showed that with the increase of population flow, contribution margin of government dominance towards urban-rural income gap would decrease, and with the increase of contribution margin contribution margin of population flow towards urban-rural income gap would decrease as well.This kind of relationship was still correct in regional regression analysis, and it also went through the robustness test successfully.Dynamic regression showed that the change of urban-rural income gap in both nationwide and regional regression had strongly positive path-dependence characteristics, and government dominance significantly enlarged the urban-rural income gap at the national level, but the population flow and its interaction with the government dominance significantly narrowed down the urban-rural income gap.From the result in partition domain, government dominance and population migration had significant regional heterogeneity on urban-rural income gap, and went through the robustness test.Therefore, to narrow down the urban-rural income gap, government should not set a single policy goal.A multifaceted policy supporting system is needed to establish to gradually correct the alienation of government functions caused by the government dominated economy.A series of supporting institutional arrangements should be made with the aims, to strengthen the support of agricultural development and rural construction, promote the system supply to boost farmer income growth,and then share development between urban and rural areas.And those arrangements include: precisely identify size and structure of local fiscal revenues and expenditures, expand the agricultural investment scale;activate the rural economic development;in the reform of the urban and rural household registration system, the barriers between urban and rural areas should be further broken to greatly develop non-agricultural industry and increase non-agricultural employment opportunities of farmers;in addition, promote non-agricultural employment of farmers and urbanization, and improve the level of local urbanization in rural area.