基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价

矿产资源是人类生存和社会可持续发展的基础,研究区域矿产资源的可持续力发展水平、能力和发展趋势,不仅仅是个地区问题,更应是资源保障问题,因而对我国资源承载能力和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。针对当前区域矿产资源可持续力定量测度研究较少,且现有评价方法不能同时兼顾指标的模糊性与随机性的难题,该研究将正态云模型引入区域矿产资源可持续力综合评价。从资源、经济、环境(含人口)三方面构建矿产资源可持续力评价指标体系,基于正态云模型结合改进的层次分析法,不仅使得指标特点得以保真,而且各指标权重的计算量也大大减少,提高了评价方法的适用性。以湖南省2010—2015年间的矿产资源为研究对象,进行矿产资源可持续力定量测度。结果显示,6年间,湖南省矿产资源可持续力状态虽然始终处于III级(一般)状态,但可持续力综合值从2.600 0上升到3.070 8,区域矿产资源可持续力水平有日趋增加态势;个别评价指标仍处于较弱状态,单位GDP能耗量、万元工业产值中矿业产值比率、人口密度单因子得分值均2.5,表明这些指标相对较弱,有待进一步采取相关措施进行改善。该评价结果与实地调研基本吻合,表明该方法是可行的。本方法在定量评价中能兼顾随机性和模糊性,且计算过程简便,结果可靠,能为矿产资源定量评价提供参考。

Normal Cloud model-based approach for regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources

Mineral resources are the foundation of human survival and the social sustainable development.The study on sustainable development level,ability and development trend of regional mineral resources is not only a regional question but also should be a resources security issue.Thus,it has a great significance to China's resources carrying capacity and sustainable development.There is less research in regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources,and at the same time,the existing evaluation methods of sustainable power of mineral resources cannot describe the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators.In this paper,the mineral resources sustainable power evaluation index system that has been built included three aspects of resources,economy and environment (including population) and normal cloud model was introduced into regional mineral resources sustainable power evaluation.The evaluation model using normal cloud theory integrated with the improved AHP was established and this model was used to evaluate the sustainable power of mineral resources in Hunan Province.Normal cloud model integrated with improved AHP used in evaluation could help the indicators to maintain their original features and reduce the calculation amount significantly.The evaluation results showed that sustainable power of mineral resources status in Hunan Province was always at the middle level but it has increased from 2.600 0 to 3.070 8 from 2010 to 2015.This indicated that sustainable power of mineral resources has improved from 2010 to 2015.Evaluation value of the energy intensity per GDP,the proportion of mining product accounting for ten thousand yuan industrial product and the population density were less than 2.5,and it indicated that these three factors in Hunan were comparatively weak and some measures should be taken.The evaluation results were in consistent with site survey results which proved this method was applicable.This method integrated randomness and fuzziness and reduced the computation amount;besides,it gave a reliable result,and provided a reference for quantitative evaluation of sustainable power of mineral resources.