基于空间替代的环境规制产业结构效应研究

由于具有很强的外部效应,区域性是环境问题的主要特征之一。一个大的经济体内部差别化的环境保护政策容易导致环境敏感型产业在地区间的迁移,这一过程将引致地区之间产业结构的变迁。相对发达地区实行更加积极的环境保护措施,在产业的选择上限制污染型产业的发展,这势必将对原有污染型产业产生影响,加大环境保护投资、转行或者外迁是该区域内企业可能的选择。在环境政策不够严厉,产业的选择更为多样的地区,宽松的环境政策甚至是地方政府招商引资的一个优惠条件,则污染型产业是其发展的可能选择。本文通过对2003—2012年中西部19个省份11个污染型制造业工业总产值占全国比例结构的变迁进行实证检验,结果显示环境规制有非常明显的产业结构空间效应,存在对污染型制造业西迁的促进作用。区域差别性的环境政策确实突出了中西部地区的比较优势,使得环境污染密集型产业向西迁徙,实现了污染产业从中国东部向西部的空间替代。从空间的整体上看,也更有助于全面认识中国的产业升级现象。如果为了缩小地区发展差距,通过环保规制差异促进中西部地区的发展,而不是严格按照功能区进行分类环境保护和要素的自由流动,在这一过程中反映出来的产业结构变迁也是不健康的,东部地区的产业升级中的要素替代作用,尤其是技术进步的作用,无疑就会被夸大。看似中西部地区可能重新步入先发展后治理的老路,受到污染损害的仅是国家的另一片地区,但是由于中西部地区属于环境脆弱区和重要的水源上游,最终受伤害的将会是我们整个国家。

Study on industrial structure effect of environmental regulation based on spatial substitution

Because of its strong external effect,regionalism is one of the main features of environmental problems.A large economy within the differentiated environmental protection policies easily leads to the migration of environmentally sensitive industries in the region,a process that wit1 lead to changes in the industrial structure between regions.Relatively developed areas tend to implement more actively environmental protection measures,and limit the development of polluting industries,which is bound to have an impact on the original polluting industries;companies in these areas will take measures to increase investment in environmental protection,or transfer or relocate their traditional industrial investment and facilities in other areas.In the areas where environmental policy is loose and which have various types of industries,loose environmental policy even becomes a preferential condition of local government to attract investment,and the pollution industry becomes a possible choice of their development.This paper,through the empirical study on the change of the proportion of industrial production in 11 contaminated industries in 19 provinces in the central and western regions in 2003 and 2012,shows that the environmental regulation has a very obvious spatial effect on the industrial structure,and plays a positive role in moving polluting industries to the western regions.Regional differences in environmental policy highlight the comparative advantages of the central and western regions,and urge the environmental pollution-intensive industries to move westward,so as to achieve spatial transfer and alternative of pollution industry from the eastern to the western China.From the spatial perspective,it is more conducive to comprehensively understand China's industrial upgrading.The changes in industrial structure would be not healthy,and element substitution effect,especially technological advancement in industrial upgrading in the eastern region will be undoubtedly be exaggerated,if we only narrow regional development gap and promote development in the central and western China through the differences in environmental regulation rather than ensuring environmental classification protection and free flow of elements according to functional areas.As a result,the central and western regions may re-enter the old road of'firstly developing,then taking measures of treatment'.It seems the pollution occurs in one region,but because the central and western regions are the environment fragile areas and important upstream water sources,the pollution will bring final damage to the whole country.