供给侧结构性改革与资源型产业转型发展

由于资源性产品价格形成机制改革长期滞后,加之国有经济占比高,资源型产业普遍市场化程度相对较低,导致供给与需求错配严重,难以适应工业4.0下生产方式和商业模式变革的需要。目前,受经济周期和矿业周期叠加的共同影响,20世纪头十年全球矿业发展黄金期告一段落,国际市场大宗商品价格低位波动,总体需求持续低迷。随着中国经济进入新常态,国内资源性产品供求关系发生了一系列新的变化,迫切需要加快资源型产业转型升级,从而更好地满足加速工业化和城镇化的要求。本文在供给侧结构性改革的背景下,分析资源型产业转型发展的动因及其面临的障碍,指出经济下行导致资源领域供给与需求的矛盾进一步凸显,在国家继续严格实行强制性节能减排的情况下,主要能源和矿产品消费规模有可能提前达峰,这有助于实现中国向国际社会承诺到2030年碳排放总量达标的承诺。同时,由于在资源型产业"去产能"过程中,僵尸企业处置、人员安置等方面仍面临诸多方面的障碍和制约因素,资源领域淘汰落后产能不可能一蹴而就,甚至会出现多轮反弹,进一步增加了行业推进供给侧结构性改革的阻力和风险。在以上结论基础上,本文设计资源型产业转型发展的路径,提出加快绿色化、智能化转型,推动资源型产业与非资源型产业融合发展的转型路径。本着"有进有退、以退促进"的原则,发挥市场机制在配置资源中的决定性作用,促进有效市场与有为政府更加兼容,建立完善进入衰退阶段的资源型产业有序退出的机制,切实降低供给侧结构性改革的社会成本。

Supply-side structural reform and transformation of resource-based industries in China

As the result of long-time lag of reform in resource product pricing mechanism, also because of the relatively higher proportion of state-owned economy, the degree of marketization is generally lower in resource-based industries than in manufacturing sector in China, which leads to severe mismatch between supply and demand side.With this mismatch, it is obviously more difficult for the resource-based industries to adapt the changes and transform of production pattern and business mode under Industrial 4.0.At present, with the superimposed effect of the economic cycle and the mining cycle, the so-called golden period of global mining development in the first decade of the 20th century has come to an end, with the prices of most commodities in the international markets are fluctuating under rather a low level and sluggish demand of mineral products.As the Chinese economy steps into the new normal, a series of new changes has taken place in the domestic demand for resource products in China.It calls for urgent transform and upgrading of resource-based industries so as to better satisfy the accelerating progress of industrialization and urbanization.This paper analyzes the motivation of transform of resource-based industries as well as the obstacles facing in context of the supply-side structural reform.It is pointed out in this paper that economic downturn is leading to more intensified contradiction between supply and demand in the field of resources.With the restriction of strict energy saving and pollution reduction assessment system, the peak value of main energy and resource products of China is likely to reach in advance.To some extent, this will help achieve the commitment which China made to the international community to meet the peak value of the total carbon emissions in 2030.At the same time, due to the obstacles and constrains in the disposal of Zombie companies and staff laid-off in the process of addressing overcapacity, the elimination of backward capacity in resource-based industries couldn't be a achieved overnight, even with some rounds of rebounds, and thus will increase the resistance and risks in supply-side structural reform.On this basis, we design the paths of resource-based industrial transform and upgrading by promoting green and intelligent development together with the integration of resource-based and non-resource-based industries.In addition, we also put forward that the government should gradually establish and improve the exit mechanism of recession industries in resource sector with the efficient combination of government intervention and market-oriented tools, thereby effectively reducing the comprehensive cost of supply-side structural reform in resource-based industries in China.