土地开发对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径——基于结构方程模型的实证检验

已有文献对土地开发、土地收入与城市经济增长间的关系进行了大量探讨,但未能揭示土地开发对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径,尤其是没有区分土地开发对城市经济增长的直接和间接影响,直接影响主要是土地开发收入用于城市基础设施建设带来的投资效应,间接影响包括土地开发收入通过改善城市基础设施和公共服务、增强对产业和人口的吸引力对城市经济增长的促进作用。本文构建了反映土地收入对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径的结构方程模型,利用285个城市2000—2010年以及2011—2013年的差分数据进行了实证检验。结果表明:土地开发收入显著促进了城市经济增长。2000—2010年间,土地出让收入每增长1个标准单位,城区GDP将增长3.09标准单位,其中土地开发收入的直接影响为0.35标准单位,间接影响为2.74标准单位。土地开发通过改善城市基础设施和公共服务、增强对产业集聚和常住人口吸引力的间接效应远大于用于城市基础设施建设投资的直接效应,在间接效应中,吸引产业集聚的影响大于吸引常住人口的影响。不同类型城市土地开发收入对城市GDP的直接影响和间接影响的程度不同。

How does the'land-based dependent model'work on urban economic growth: a structural equation modeling analysis

Numerous studies have emphasized the close relationship between land development,land revenue and China's urban economy.However,the mechanism and pathway from land development to urban economic growth,especially with regard to the direct and indirect impacts of public infrastructure,remains unexplored.The direct impact refers to the investment effect caused by using land revenue to construct urban infrastructure.The indirect impact refers:the improvement of infrastructure and public service increase one city's attractiveness to both industries and people,which also stimulates urban growth.Using data from 285 provincial-level cities from the periods of 2000 to 2010 and 2011 to 2013,we estimate a structural equation model to analyze the mechanism and pathway from land revenue to urban growth.We find that land revenue has greatly spurred on urban economic growth.In the period of 2000 to 2010,an increase of one standard unit of land revenue is associated with an increase of 3.09 standard unit of GDP growth.The indirect impact is 0.35 standard unit,whereas the indirect impact is 2.74 standard unit.In fact,land revenue's indirect impact is several times that of the direct impact on urban area GDP.Industrial agglomeration and resident population growth are the most important and effective pathways through which land development influences urban growth.The indirect effect of land revenue on urban economic growth through industrial agglomeration was larger than that of resident population growth.The direct and indirect impacts of land revenue on urban GDP also vary with heterogeneous cities.