基于内容分析法的土地利用总体规划目标偏好研究

土地利用总体规划需要统筹区域发展多元目标以增强对区域发展的指导力和约束性,因此全面了解我国土地利用总体规划的政策目标偏好,能为优化规划技术方法和改革规划管理体制提供政策参考。鉴于此,本文在分析我国土地利用总体规划多元目标及其关系的基础上,采用内容分析法基于全国土地利用总体规划纲要进行词频挖掘构建目标偏好测量维度及体系,进而对两轮省级土地利用总体规划文本进行目标偏好的定量测度,结果表明:(1)土地利用总体规划是多目标规划,通过内容分析法可以构建由经济、社会、生态三大目标构成的目标偏好测量体系;(2)从目标偏好排序来看,三大目标中社会目标始终是两轮土地利用总体规划的首要偏好目标,生态目标是土地利用总体规划的次要偏好目标,经济目标排在最后;同时相比上轮规划,本轮规划耕地保护子目标次序提前,土地整治子目标次序推后;(3)从目标偏好程度来看,社会目标的首位偏好程度有所下降,但其中耕地保护子目标的首位偏好度明显上升;生态目标和经济目标的首位偏好程度基本不变,总体而言本轮规划三大目标偏好程度的差异缩小。研究结果说明,我国土地利用总体规划始终坚持以耕地保护为核心的社会目标偏好,符合其是国土资源管理部门主导的部门规划的定位;虽然土地利用总体规划对经济、社会、生态三大目标的偏好程度差异缩小,但其若要在空间规划体系中发挥更大的作用,还需要通过优化规划技术和改革规划管理体制进一步均衡经济、社会、生态目标,以承担起统领全区域空间发展的要求。

Research on objective predilections of the general land use planning based on content analysis method

The general land use planning needs to coordinate multi-objective to enhance the guidance and constraint of regional development.Fully understanding the objective predilections of general land use planning can provide reference for optimizing planning techniques and reforming planning management system.Therefore the paper analyzes multi-objective and their relationship of general land use planning firstly, then uses content analysis method conducting word frequency mining and constructing measurement dimension and system based on the national general land use planning to quantitatively measure objective predilections of two rounds of the provincial general land use planning texts.The results show that:①General land use planning has multiple objectives, and we can construct measurement system of objective predileetions including economic, social and ecological through content analysis method.②From the point of sequence of objective predilections, two rounds of general land use planning both take social objective predilection as primary objective predilection, ecological objective predilection as secondary and economic as the last one.Compared with the last round of general land use planning, sequence of cultivated land protection sub-objective moves forward, while sequence of land remediation sub-objective moves backward.③From the point of degree of objective predilections, the primate degree of social objective predilection declines while cultivated land protection sub-objective increases.The primate degree of economic and ecological objective predilection is almost constant.Overall, the differences in the degree of objective predilections have narrowed.These indicate that general land use planning which always insists on taking cultivated land protection sub-objective as the primary objective predilection, basically fits its position of the sector planning led by land and resources administration department.Although the differences in the degree of economic, social and ecological objective predilections have narrowed, if it wants to play a greater role in spatial planning system, it still needs to balance economic, social and ecological goals further by optimizing planning technique and reforming planning management system, to meet the requirements of guiding region-wide spatial development.