城镇化与粮食生产技术效率的互动关系研究

城镇化和粮食生产在我国都占据着十分重要的地位,供给侧改革背景下如何提升粮食生产技术效率,促进城镇化和粮食生产的协调发展,具有十分重要的意义。文章以1998—2014年全国29个省(市、区)为研究对象,分别采用熵值法和DEA方法对城镇化指标体系和粮食生产技术效率指标体系进行了构建,其中,城镇化指标体系被细分为人口城镇化、土地城镇化和经济城镇化三个子系统,在此基础上采用面板协整方程、误差修正模型、脉冲响应方程和方差分解模型对城镇化和粮食生产技术效率之间的互动关系进行了分析。研究发现:(1)城镇化和粮食生产技术效率之间的长期均衡关系对短期的影响存在功能区差异。对于全国层面、粮食主产区以及粮食主销区,长期正面效应大于短期负面效应,对于粮食平衡区,长期正面效应小于短期正面效应。(2)总体来说,城镇化和粮食生产技术效率响应之间的变动为正,并逐渐趋向一个稳定的水平。(3)城镇化和粮食生产技术效率的预测方差受自身的冲击要更高,且二者对预测方差的贡献度呈现出区域差异。最后,提出要加强粮食生产的科技投入和资本投入,实施"藏粮于技"和"藏粮于地"策略,并加强对粮食生产领域的生态环境治理,提高粮食的可持续发展能力。此外,因地制宜制定合适的城镇化和粮食发展策略,适当引导和鼓励社会资本参与粮食生产项目和社会化服务建设,促进粮食产业的现代化。

Study on the interactive relationship between urbanization and the technical efficiency of grain production

Urbanization and grain production are both very important in China.How to improve the technical efficiency of grain production under the background of supply-side reform has great significance in promoting the coordinated development of urbanization and grain production.This paper takes data from 1998 to 2014 in 29 provinces (cities,districts) as the research object,using the entropy method and DEA method,and constructs the urbanization index system and the technical efficiency of grain system.Urbanization index system is divided into three subsystems,population urbanization,land urbanization and the urban economy.On this basis,this paper uses panel cointegration equation,error correction model,the impulse response equation and the variance decomposition model to analyze the interactive relationship between urbanization and the technical efficiency of grain.It is found that:① There is a functional area difference for the impact of long-term equilibrium relationship on the short-term between urbanization and grain production technology.At the national level,in the main producing area and the main grain sales area,the positive long-term effect is greater than the negative short-term effect,and smaller for the balanced area.② Generally,changes between the response of urbanization and the technical efficiency of grain is positive and turns to be steady.③The variance of urbanization and the technical efficiency of grain receive a higher impact by themselves and the contributions of variances have regional difference.Policy implications are that we need to increase technology and capital investment in food production,implement the strategy of ‘storing food in technology’ and ‘ storing food in land’,and strengthen the management of ecological environment in food production,improving its sustainable development ability.In addition,we should implement appropriate strategies of urbanization and food development adapting to local conditions,guiding and encouraging social capital to participate in food production projects and social service construction to promote the modernization of food industry.