碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的潜在影响

作为未来一段时期市场化减排政策的重要抓手,中国将于2017年启动全国碳交易市场。通过施加碳价格,碳市场将对不同行业的生产成本产生影响。那么,碳价格对中国工业外商直接投资的影响如何?是否有助于优化吸引FDI的行业结构?这正是本文关注的焦点。为了克服碳价格数据不足的问题,本文构建了碳价格与煤炭、天然气等五种能源价格之间的映射关系,并采用1999—2013年36个工业行业的面板数据,估计了能源成本对外商直接投资相对规模和绝对规模的影响,并通过碳市场不同价格水平与能源成本之间的映射关系,对工业行业吸引FDI的潜在影响进行了反事实测算。论文的主要结果有:(1)碳价格与能源成本之间的映射关系存在行业异质性,这是由不同工业行业的能源消费结构差异所致。(2)能源成本对整体FDI的规模不存在显著负向影响。其对中国吸引FDI的相对规模和绝对规模的影响在高耗能行业和非高耗能行业间存在显著的差异。(3)不同碳价格水平对中国工业吸引FDI的相对规模、绝对规模和行业结构都将产生显著影响。碳价格将显著降低高耗能行业的FDI规模,但对非高耗能行业的外资规模具有促进作用;对FDI的绝对规模的影响较之相对规模更显著。碳价格为50元时,高耗能行业FDI的相对规模累积下降2%—7%,绝对规模累积下降3%—13%;非高耗能行业FDI的相对规模累积增加1.5%—3%,绝对规模累积增加0.1%—0.3%。上述结果说明,全国碳市场建立对中国工业吸引FDI的整体规模不会产生显著的负面影响,但有助于提高非高耗能行业的FDI流入,并降低高耗能行业的FDI流入,优化工业吸引外资的行业结构。

Potential influence of carbon price on China's industrial inward FDI

As an important grasp of Chinese market-oriented emission reduction policy in the future,China will establish a national carbon trading market in 2017.Through adding carbon prices,carbon trading market will influence industrial production costs.Therefore,how do carbon prices affect China's industrial inward FDI? Is it useful to optimize industrialstructure of inward FDI? These are the focus points of this paper.To overcome the problem of insufficient carbon data,this paper constructs the Mapping Carbon Pricing with prices of five types of resources,and uses the data of 36 industries from 1999 to 2013 to calculate the influence of energy cost and other factors on FDI relative scale and absolute scale.Then,it calculates the counter-factual potential effect of different carbon prices on FDI of Chinese industry.Empirical results contain three aspects.First,the industrial heterogeneity of Mapping Carbon Pricing is due to the different industrial energy consumption structures.Second,energy cost does not have significantly negative impacts on FDI.And there are obvious differences on the effect of energy cost on Chinese FDI relative scale and absolute scale between high and non-high pollution and energy-consumption industries.Third,carbon price will have significant impacts on Chinese industrial FDI relative or absolute scale and industrial structure.The effect is more significant on FDI absolute scale of high pollution and energyconsumption industries.For example,when carbon price is 50 yuan,the relative scale of FDI accumulatively reduces 2％-7％ and the absolute scale of FDI accumulatively reduces 3％-13％ in the high energy-consumption industries.However,the relative scale of FDI accumulatively increases 1.5％-3％ and the absolute scale of FDI accumulatively increases 0.1％-0.3％ in the non-high energy-consumption industries.The results indicate that the establishment of national carbon market will not have significantly negative influence on Chinese industrial inward FDI,but it can promote the non-high energy consuming industries FDI inflow,decrease the high energy consuming industries FDI inflow and optimize FDI industrial structures.