农村人口转移趋势及空间指向研究

农村人口转移及城市集群发展加速城镇化进程,把握农村人口转移趋势,导引农村人口有序转移是推动新型城镇化建设的关键。长株潭城市群一体化发展具有典型性和代表性,基于此,本文选择湖南省和长株潭城市群作为研究对象,探讨农村人口转移趋势及其空间指向。本文选择人口发展方程和回归分析两种常见的人口总量预测方法测算湖南省2016—2030年人口总量,比较测算结果发现人口发展方程虽然在年增长率的预设上具有一定的主观性,但在长期人口预测中表现出更好的适用性。在城镇化率预测上,Logistic增长模型具有广泛的适用性。因此本文选择人口发展方程和Logistic增长模型,预测湖南省和长株潭城市群2016—2030年的人口总量和城镇化率,在此基础上计算出人口城乡分布的大致状况,进而估算农村人口转移趋势。预测结果显示2016—2030年间,湖南省和长株潭城市群分别有大约980万和567万农村人口向城市转移,长株潭城市群城镇化率和农村人口转移进程均领先于湖南省平均水平,尤其是城市群中心城市。据此,可得出结论:城镇化进程中的城市群发展在推动农村人口转移中的作用突显,农村人口转移空间指向城市群集聚,即城市群是引领城镇化进程的空间经济主体形态,是农村人口转移的"牵引力",是农村人口转移空间指向的"内聚力"。同时,农村人口加快向城市群聚集的趋势也呼吁城市治理理念和治理模式的创新,智慧城市或是这一变革的最优方案。

Rural population transferring trend and spatial direction

Rural population transfer and megalopolis development accelerate urbanization.Hence grasping rural population transferring trend and guiding rural population to the urban orderly are the sticking points to promote the construction of new urbanization.We take Hunan Province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration which are typical and representative in the integration of urban agglomeration as a case to explore rural population transferring trend and its spatial direction.By comparing the results of Hunan's population in 2016-2030 which is estimated by the population development equation and regression analysis respectively,we find that the population development equation is a better choice for long-term population projections although its preset annual population growth rate is subjective.Logistic growth model is widely applied in forecasting urbanization rate.Rural population transferring trend is predicted through these steps:Step 1,forecast the population and urbanization rate of Hunan province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration in 2016-2030.Step 2,calculate the population distribution.Step 3,estimate rural population transferring trend.The results show that there are approximately 9.8 million and 5.67 million rural population of Hunan Province and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration respectively will transfer to the urban between 2016 to 2030.And,the urbanization rate and the rural population transfer of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration,especially the core city,have been ahead of the Hunan Province.The conclusion is that the urban agglomeration development with urbanization plays a prominent role in rural population transfer whose spatial direction is the megalopolis.It means that urban agglomeration is the main economic space form for leading the urbanization.It is also the traction and cohesion for rural population transfer.On the condition that the speed of rural population transfer is accelerating,and it is very urgent for innovating the urban governance concept and governance model.Maybe,smart city is a good choice.