中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。

Construction and empirical analysis of China's new Keqiang index

With the ‘ new normal ’ of China's economy,Keqiang index built by British Economist has failed to reflect the whole picture of China's economy.How to objectively reflect the real situation of China's economy has become an urgent practical problem to be solved.In order to better measure the real situation of China's economic operation,according to the vision put forward by Premier Li Keqiang,which will pay more attention to employment,income and ecological environment in the future,this paper adds employment and income indicators,such as the number of employed persons at the end of the year,per capita net income of rural households,and per capita disposable income of urban households,to the existing Keqiang index.Using the relevant data of China from 1995 to 2015 and analytic hierarchy process,this paper constructs the revised version of Keqiang index-new Keqiang index,compares it with GDP growth rate and Keqiang index,and finds that new Keqiang index has more excellent characteristics in reflecting the degree of economic fluctuation and the overall operation of China's economy.Compared with the growth rate of GDP,new Keqiang index overcomes the ironing effect brought by increasing of the proportion of the service industry,and thus sensitive to reflect China's economic fluctuations,and more sensitive to unusual events.Relative to Keqiang index,new Keqiang index breaks down the leverage effect of the economic fluctuation brought by China's unbalanced development in the secondary industry,reduces the false component of economic growth,and thus more relevant with economic operation of China.In addition,relative to Keqiang index,new Keqiang index has better timeliness and relevance in the reflection of economic sentiment.Using time difference correlation analysis method to analyze the relationship between new Keqiang index and macroeconomic indicators,this paper finds that new Keqiang index has advantages in reflecting added value of the primary industry,added value of the tertiary industry,final consumption expenditure,gross capital formation,foreign trade and inflation.This study shows that new Keqiang index is a more suitable multiple evaluation indicator to measure China's economy,and it provides a scientific reference for measuring the real situation of China's economic operation.