新能源汽车补贴政策工具挖掘及量化评价

现阶段中国大力开展新能源汽车示范推广工作,中央及各地方政府已相继出台一系列补贴政策。在严厉打击新能源汽车"骗补"及补贴政策重新调整等背景下,分析梳理现有政策从而对其进行整体把握与正确判断显得尤为重要,从而为政策改进与优化做准备。本文选取了截至2016年底国家和北京市颁布的涉及新能源汽车补贴的相关政策。首先,从采用文本挖掘的方法整理出的政策文本的高频有效关键词从中提炼出的政策工具,可分为供给型、需求型、环境型三类,分别从技术推动、市场拉动和环境支撑三个方面促进和规范新能源汽车市场。发现现有政策工具仍存在一些问题,如缺乏支持新能源汽车技术提升和产品开发的供给型政策工具;环境型政策工具的作用重点欠科学,对充电基础设施建设的重视程度不够;补贴过于聚焦新能源汽车购买环节等。其次,结合政策特点运用PMC指数模型构建了新能源汽车补贴政策的量化评价框架,通过变量分类、参数识别建立了多投入产出表,并通过PMC指数的测量、PMC曲面的生成综合反映政策各维度的情况。再次,采用实证分析的方法,选取3项新能源汽车补贴政策(P1、P2、P3)为研究对象,对政策进行量化评价。结果得出3项政策的PMC指数分别为7.52、6.95、6.21,均在良好的等级之内,P1政策的量化结果为优秀,P2、P3政策结果为良好,且具有较大的提升空间,可考虑在激励措施等方面予以加强。最后,根据新能源汽车补贴政策无法取得预期效果的原因,提出三点政策优化意见:(1)重视供给型政策工具的使用,加大新能源汽车科研资金投入;(2)环境型政策工具的作用重点应放在充电等基础设施的建设上;(3)需求型可考虑采取以公共交通带动私人交通的策略。

Policy instrument mining and quantitative evaluation of new energy vehicles subsidies

At present,China vigorously carries out the demonstration and extension of new energy vehicle,and at same time,the central and local governments have introduced a series of subsidies.It is very important to analyze and sort out the existing policies in order to avoid'cheating subsidies' behavior of the new energy vehicles and re-adjust and improve the subsidy policy.This paper selected the subsidy policies about new energy vehicles promulgated by the state and Beijing in 2016.First of all,this paper sorted out the high-frequency effective keywords from policy text by using text mining method and extracted the policy instruments,which were divided into three categories:supply-oriented,demand-oriented,environmental-oriented.These categories respectively promote and regulate the new energy automotive market and environmental from three aspects including technology support,market-driven and environmental support.The existing policy instruments still have some problems:There are not enough supply-oriented policy instruments to enhance technology and product development of new energy vehicles.The focus of environmental-oriented policy instruments is not scientific,and we require more attention to the construction of charging infrastructure.Subsidies are only focused on the purchase of new energy vehicles.Second,this paper constructed the quantitative evaluation framework by combining with the characteristics of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy and using the PMC-index model.The multi-input-output table was established through variable classification and parameter identification.Details in various dimensions of the policy can be reflected through the measurement of PMC-index and the generation of PMC surface.Third,using the method of empirical analysis,three new energy vehicle subsidy policies were selected as the research object,and the policy was evaluated quantitatively.The results of the three policies of the PMC-index were 7.52,6.95,and 6.21,all within a good level.The quantitative evaluation result of P1 was excellent.P2 and P3 were good,and have a larger room for improvement,such as increasing the incentive measures.Finally,according to the reasons why new energy vehicle subsidy policy can not achieve the desired effect,it put forward three policy optimization suggestions:① paying more attention on the use of supply-oriented policy instruments to increase investment in new energy vehicles research funds;② environmental-oriented policy instruments should be focused on the role in the construction of charging infrastructure;③ demandoriented can take the strategy of increasing the public transport to promote private transport.