中国资源型城市CO_2排放比较研究

城市,特别是资源型城市,作为践行国家应对气候变化战略行动的重要主体,在绿色发展转型以及生态文明建设进程中正面临诸多现实挑战。资源型城市能否实现低碳发展转型,关乎我国在国际社会上承诺的中长期碳减排目标能否最终实现。为此,本研究基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据(CHRED),综合运用DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)、分类比较研究和情景分析等方法,对我国126个资源型城市的CO_2排放特征进行了系统分析,揭示了这些城市在能源结构和产业结构方面面临的诸多挑战,分析了这些城市未来碳排放趋势和碳减排潜力。研究结果显示:在正常达峰情景下,2030年126个资源型城市将以72.65亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的60%;在提前达峰情景下,资源型城市将在2025年以53.78亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的45%左右。最后,针对我国资源型城市的绿色低碳发展转型以及碳排放达峰管理提出几点建议:一是加强能源统计工作,促进资源型城市碳排放信息化管理平台建设;二是加强体制机制建设,健全资源型城市绿色低碳转型制度体系;三是改善以煤炭等化石燃料为主导的能源消费结构,提高清洁燃料利用的比重;四是加快绿色低碳技术发展,推动产业优化升级和碳排放强度明显下降。

A comparative study on CO2 emission of resource-based cities in China

As key players of national climate change mitigation action, cities, especially resource-based cities, have to face many practical challenges in the course of green development and ecological civilization construction.The realization of China's CO2 emission reduction target in middle term and long term will depend on whether our resource-based cities can achieve the successful transformation of low-carbon development.Based on China's high spatial resolution grid database (CHRED) towards 340 prefecture-level cities, this study analyzes the carbon dioxide emission characteristics of 126 resource-based cities in China, by using DPSIR (Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response-Response) framework, analogy studies and scenario analysis.This paper also reveals the challenges they faced in terms of urban energy consumption structure and industrial structure, and explores the future CO2 emission trends and carbon emission reduction potential of the proposed cities.The results show that under usual peak scenario, CO2 emission in 126 resource-based cities will attain a peak value of 7.265 billion tons in 2030, accounting for about 60% of total CO2 emission in China.And in early peak scenario, CO2 emission of all resource-based cities will peak with 5.378 billion tons in 2025, representing about 45% of total CO2 emission in China.Finally, the study puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions on the transformation of low-carbon development and achieving carbon emission peak of resource-based cities in China: First, strengthen capacity building on energy statistics work, and promote information management platform of carbon emissions performance in the resource-based cities.Second, enhance institutional capacity building in terms of green & low-carbon development.Third, improve current primary energy consumption structure with fossil fuels dominated, and increase the share of clean fuels in energy mix.Fourth, accelerate the development of green & low-carbon technology, promote the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, and facilitate remarkable reduction of carbon emission intensity in the resource-based cities.