开放经济、环保财政支出与污染治理——来自中国省级与行业面板数据的经验证据

首先按照各省环保财政支出占GDP比重与按主成分分析法计算的地方环境污染物排放综合指数的排名情况把中国30个省份分成两个区域,区域1环保财政支出污染治理效应较强,区域2环保财政支出污染治理效应较弱。区域1包括北京、海南等14个省市,区域2包括天津、上海等16个省市。其次基于2007—2014年中国省级和行业面板数据,分析开放经济、环保财政支出对污染治理的影响。最后借鉴门限回归模型检验开放经济是否存在环保财政支出与污染治理的门槛效应。结果显示:(1)环境污染物排放存在区域差异和行业差异,区域1呈现出开放程度和污染物排放双低的特征,而区域2则表现为双高特征。制造业、电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业污染物排放较高,采掘业污染物排放年均增长速度最快。(2)样本期内省级和行业面板数据均表明开放经济与环境污染物排放显著负相关,对外开放不是助推环境污染的原因。(3)中国环保财政支出与环境污染物排放显著负相关,环保财政支出具有显著的污染治理效应。(4)开放经济对环保财政支出的污染治理效应具有门槛效应,当进口和出口贸易总额高于门槛值-1.221、-1.016时环保财政支出的污染治理效应很难发挥。(5)以进、出口贸易总额为门槛变量时,有107个观测值低于门槛值,占总观测值的44.58%,其中有59个位于区域1,占55.14%。鉴于此应继续加大环境保护财政支出,进一步提升环保财政专项支出在GDP中所占比重,保持适度的对外开放,优化能源消费结构和实现产业结构升级,全面改善环境质量,提升开放经济下环保财政支出的污染治理效应。

Open economy,fiscal expenditure of environmental protection and pollution governance:Evidences from China's provincial and industrial panel data

First,according to proportion of environmental fiscal expenditure in GDP and comprehensive ranking of local environment pollutants calculated by principal components analysis,this paper divided China's 30 provinces into two regions.Region 1 includes 14 provinces such as Beijing,Hainan;region 2 includes 16 provinces such as Tianjin,Shanghai.Second,based on provincial and sectoral panel data in 2007 to 2014,it analyzes the impact of open economy and environmental protection expenditure on environmental pollution.Finally,using threshold regression model,it tests threshold effect of open economy between environmental protection expenditure and pollutant emissions.The conclusions are as follows:①Environmental pollutants differ in region and industry.Region 1 has characteristics of low degree of both openness and pollutant emission,while region 2 has the high degree of openness and pollutant emission.Industries about production and supply of manufacturing,electricity,gas and water have high pollutant emissions,and mining industry has the fastest average annual growth rate of pollutant emissions.② Both provincial and industrial panel data during the sample period show that the open economy and environmental pollutant emissions have significantly negative relation,and opening-up is not the cause of environmental pollution.③ Chinese environmental expenditure and environmental pollutant emissions have significantly negative relation,and environmental pollution fiscal expenditure has a significant pollution control effect.④The open economy has a threshold effect on the pollution effect of environmental protection fiscal expenditure;when the total amount of import and export trade are higher than the threshold value of-1.221 and-1.016,environmental pollution control effect of fiscal expenditure turns to be less significant.⑤ When the total amount of import and export trade is the threshold variable,there are 107 observed values below the threshold value,accounting for 44.58％ of the total;59 are located in the region 1,accounting for 55.14％.So we should continue to increase environmental protection expenditure and maintain a moderate opening,so as to expand environmental pollution fiscal expenditure effect governance under open economy.