专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究

新一轮扶贫攻坚阶段,贫困地区实现可持续减贫的关键不在于现有经济增长模式下如何提高转移支付的精度和效率,而在于真正改变贫困地区的经济发展理念,从盯住经济总量增长转向用减贫目标统领经济发展。产业结构与贫困减缓的关系影响着贫困地区产业发展的政策制定,但既往研究对何种产业结构更有助于贫困减缓没有形成共识。本文基于产业专业化和多样化视角,分析了专业化、多样化影响贫困减缓的理论机制,并利用2004—2014年中国省级面板数据,对专业化、相关多样化、不相关多样化与FGT贫困指数的关系进行了门限回归和稳健性检验。检验结果确认了产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现:专业化的减贫效应在产品生命周期的初始和发展阶段趋于增强,并且经济密度更小、距离技术前沿更远的地区,专业化的减贫效果更显著;多样化的减贫绩效低于专业化,且相关多样化的减贫效应高于不相关多样化。细分产业来看,第三产业相关多样化比其他多样化结构更具减贫效果。贫困地区在减贫的产业结构选择上,首要目标是改善专业化程度,其次是在多样化的既定前提下,谋求相关多样化,尤其是第三产业的相关多样化。专业化和相关多样化对不同贫困群体的影响也存在差别,既往产业结构更有利于贫困线附近群体的贫困减缓,而对深度贫困群体的溢出不足。因此,在塑造合宜减贫产业结构,改善低技能劳动力需求的同时,还应辅以改善深度贫困人口劳动力供给的政策,改善其自我发展能力和经济机会,从而增强从益贫产业结构中获益的能力。

Specialization,related variety and dynamic heterogeneous poverty reduction effect of industry structure

In the new stage of poverty reduction, poverty areas need to change the poverty reduction strategy from enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of transfer payments to achieving a more pro-poor economic development pattern.The relationship between industrial structure and poverty reduction can affect the industrial development policy in poverty areas.However, researchers have different opinions on which industry is more effective for pro-poorness.We construct a theoretical model to explain the relationship between industrial structure and poverty.And we also use panel threshold model to analyze the causal link between industrial structure and FGT poverty index based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2010.With the perspective of specialization and diversity, it analyzes how specialization, related variety of industry to affect theoretical mechanism of poverty reduction.This paper finds considerable variation in the poverty reducing effectiveness of industrial structure across time and areas, which can be called dynamic and heterogeneous poverty reduction effect.Specialization can achieve a more and more significant poverty reduction effect in the initial and development period of production life cycle.The poverty reduction elasticity is also bigger in the areas with smaller economic density and further behind technology frontier compared with other areas.Variety performances weaker in poverty reduction than specialization, and related variety of tertiary industry can be more efficient than total variety and unrelated variety in poverty reduction process.The industrial development policy in poverty area should focus on specialization and related variety of the tertiary industry.The poverty reduction effect of specialization and related variety varies among different income groups.The people whose income is near the poverty line gain more from economic development than the people whose income is far below the poverty line.So, the policy which can promote the self-development capacity and economic opportunity of deep poverty can amplify the poverty reduction effect of a certain industry structure.